操受者操作特徵曲線統計研究環太平洋 地震帶電離層全電子含量地震前兆

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Title:	操受者操作特徵曲線統計研究環太平洋地震帶電離層全電子含量地震前兆
Authors:	黃彥皓;huang,Yen-hao
Contributors:	太空科學研究所
Keywords:	操受者操作特徵曲線;地震前兆;全電離層電子含量;全球電離層圖;Z檢定;ROC curve;Z-test
Date:	2015-07-28
Issue Date:	2015-09-23 10:50:09 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本論文利用全球電離層圖(Global Ionospheric Map, GIM)的全電離層電子含量(Total Electron Content, TEC)研究 1999-2014 年環太平洋地震帶上的地震電離層前兆(seismo-ionospheric precursors, SIPs)。分析環太平洋地震帶上 5 個區域為台灣、蘇門答臘、南美洲、日本和中美洲。以 15 天為背景計算規一化 TEC 與 Z 檢定判斷可能的前兆出現時間。利用接收者作業特徵曲線評估前兆的預測性。檢視台灣地區 129 筆規模 M≧5.5 的地震後發現，前兆時間發生在地震前 2-4 天 1600-2000LT 種類為負異常。而蘇門答臘 153 筆規模 M≧6 的地震，前兆則出現在地震 1-2 天前的 0200-0600LT。南美洲 3-5 天前 1800-2300LT 負異常預測 151 筆地震有較好的效果。日本地區 220 筆地震分析的結果顯示地震電離層前兆出現在地震 1-4 天前的正異常。而中美洲地區 1991-2014 年 122 筆規模大於 6 個地震前兆出現在 10-15 天前，種類是負異常。規模越大的地震強照現象越強烈，顯示可能有能量漏釋的現象。;Evidence of the seismo-ionospheric precursor (SIP) is reported by statistically investigating the relationship between the total electron content (TEC) in global ionosphere map (GIM) and earthquake of Circum-Pacific seismic zone during 1999-2014. This paper was studied the earthquakes occurred in Taiwan, Sumatra, South America, Japan, and Central America. A median-based method together with the z test is employed to examine the TEC variations 30 days before and after the earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is then used to evaluate the efficiency of TEC for predicting earthquakes during a specified time period. It is found that the TEC significantly decreases 1600-2000 LT in 2-4 days before the 129 M≥5.5 earthquake in Taiwan. The statistical result in Sumatra shows that TEC reductions appeared 0200-0600 LT 1-2 days before 153 M 6.0 earthquakes. 151 M 6.0 earthquakes in South America was studied and TEC significantly decreases 1800-2300 LT 3-5 days before earthquakes. An abnormal increase was found 1-4 days before 220 M 6.0 earthquakes in Japan. The TEC in Central America decrease 10-15 days before 122 M6.0 earthquakes
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Space Science] Department of Earth Sciences

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