景氣循環對婚育行為之影響;The Impacts of Business Cycle on Marriage, Divorce and Fertility Behaviors .

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题名:	景氣循環對婚育行為之影響;The Impacts of Business Cycle on Marriage, Divorce and Fertility Behaviors .
作者:	王英傑;WANG,YING-CHIEH
贡献者:	產業經濟研究所
关键词:	景氣循環;婚育行為;結婚率;離婚率;生育率;生育意願;business cycle;marriage;divorce rate;birth rate;fertility
日期:	2015-07-16
上传时间:	2015-09-23 12:19:52 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	過去數十年來，全球經歷過幾次重大的金融危機，影響家計單位的行為，本研究主要目的為檢測景氣循環對於台灣國民婚育行為：結婚、離婚、生育的影響，以及了解我國的婚育行為是順景氣循環或逆景氣循環，以及其他跟婚育行為有關之變數：教育、收入、之影響。實證結果共分為兩部分，第一部分利用行政院主計總處1994年至2013年的縣市層級資料，探討景氣循環對婚育行為的影響。第二部分利用行政院主計總處2000年、2003年、2006年、2010年、2013年共五年分的人力資源調查附帶婦女婚育與就業調查，進行實證研究，探討景氣循環對女性生育意願的影響。實證結果顯示，結婚率不受景氣影響。離婚率為逆景氣循環，當景氣不佳時，失業率在不同年齡層對離婚率有正向的影響，離婚率受到逆景氣循環影響最主要的年齡層為20歲至49歲，且越低教育程度失業率對離婚率的負向影響愈大。生育率為順景氣循環，當景氣不佳時，生育率有下降的現象。至於婦女婚育行為方面，則發現婦女生育意願在普遍在景氣不佳時降低，且高中教育程度的婦女的生育意願較低，但景氣循環的效果在近年有趨於不顯著的跡象。 ;There were several economic crises in the past decades that had catastrophic influence to households in the globe. The influence of business cycle on marriage behavior such like getting marry, divorce and birthing in Taiwan is the major issue of this study. The empirical study will help us define the marriage behavior in Taiwan is procyclical or countercyclical and the effects of education, income and sex ratio. The empirical study will take two parts, first part will try to figure out the influence of business cycle on marriage behavior in county level that data was collected from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and statistics, Executive Yuan, R. O. C. (Taiwan) from 1994 to 2013. Second part will focus on the effect of economic cycle on birthing will of female samples that data was collected from Survey Research Data Archive (SRDA) with specific years 2000, 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2013. The empirical study shows there is no influence on getting married by business cycle. The divorce rate is countercyclical which means when macroeconomic turn down the divorce rate will get higher. The major impact was around the age from 25 to 45 that lower degree of education would have more negative impact .The result of female birthing will shows it would get lower when macroeconomic turn down and females with high school degree but the effect of macroeconomic has been demolishing recent years.
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