在氣候變遷所導致之全球暖化暨海平面上升之情境下,未來潛在超級颱風生成機率提高。而臺灣位於西北太平洋和南中國海交界,颱風生成頻率高且路徑密度集中,因此本計畫將探討潛在超級颱風及其所造成之暴潮威脅,以及海平面上升對沿海地區之風暴潮溢淹與波高之影響,並同時探討台灣歷史上最為嚴重之1845年雲林口湖災難性風暴潮事件。此外,本計畫亦將建置高準確度且高解析度之風暴潮溢淹速算系統,可快速且精準地預報臺灣地區之暴潮溢淹範圍(Potential Surge Inundation Area)及沿海地區之可能最大暴潮高(Maximum Surge Height),以適時地提供臺灣居民風暴潮災防資訊。 ;Due to the scenarios of global warming and sea-level rise caused by climate change, the risk of encountering the super typhoon is high in the future. Taiwan is located between the northwest Pacific and South China Sea, where the typhoons are frequently generated and their paths are highly concentrated. Therefore, this project aims to explore the potential threat of storm surges induced by the future super typhoons, in conjunction with sea level rise on the coastal flooding and the effect to the wave height. We shall also study thoroughly the catastrophic historical record, the 1845 Yunlin storm surge event. In addition, this project will also build a high accuracy and high resolution storm surge forecasting and fast calculation system to rapidly and accurately predict the Potential Surge Inundation Area (PSI) and the Maximum Surge Height (MSH) of the coastal area in Taiwan, to provide residents the information of hazard mitigation in time. ;研究期間:10501 ~ 10512