機構與個別投資人情緒指標對黃金價格之影響

NCU Institutional Repository > 管理學院 > 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 > 博碩士論文 > Item 987654321/71782

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题名:	機構與個別投資人情緒指標對黃金價格之影響
作者:	謝昌儒;Hsieh,Chang-Ju
贡献者:	財務金融學系在職專班
关键词:	黃金;情緒指標;十年牛市;機構投資人;非理性;散戶
日期:	2016-07-29
上传时间:	2016-10-13 13:52:13 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	以往在經濟衰退或是不穩定的年代，人們為了使資產保值不受經濟環境波動影響，故常會選擇黃金為避險與保值的標的。然而過去文獻已指出，專業機構投資者與個別投資者在資產價格的決定上，扮演著不同的角色。本文從行為財務學的角度來觀察與解釋這兩個族群對於黃金的影響。我們使用了代表機構投資人的黃金情緒指標(CBSIGold)，發現專業的機構投資人對未來黃金價格走勢樂觀時，黃金報酬會如他們預期的往上漲，說明機構投資人的情緒指標對於報酬率是有顯著的預測能力的，其中上漲幅度以金融海嘯後最大。而且專業投資人在預測未來金價走勢時，已經考慮了石油與美元匯率機構投資人情緒指標的影響力。相反地在個別投資人情緒指標（MCSI）下，當個別投資人對未來金價樂觀(悲觀)時，會過度看多(看空)當期價格，並在下一期的時候反轉，反轉強度以金融海嘯期間最為強烈。我們也發現在股票市場風險較大時，人們會選擇進入黃金市場避險。在金融海嘯時期，由於市場上劇烈動盪，造成散戶心理上恐慌，使其不理性投資行為的影響，大於機構投資人理性投資行為對於市場的影響。機構投資人並非只是單純的搜集過去資料來分析預期黃金價格未來走勢，而是真正具有專業的眼光來對黃金投資創造其報酬率。然而在資訊發達交易及資訊眾多的今日，投資者若能參考多方資料，而非一昧的追高殺低，投資前謹慎思考，理解人類心理因素造成衝動投資行為，應能在投資這條路上減少損失。 ;In past recessions or unstable era, people in order to preserve the asset is not affected by fluctuations in the economic environment, it is often choose gold as a hedge and hedge targets. However, in the past literature has pointed out that professional institutional investors and individual investors in the asset price is determined to play a different role. From the perspective of behavioral finance to explain this observation and the two groups for the gold in. We used on behalf of institutional investors in gold sentiment indicators (CBSIGold), found that professional institutional investors on when the gold price trend optimistic, gold remuneration will, as they had expected to rise in the future, indicating that institutional investors sentiment indicator for the rate of return is have significant predictive power, in which the rate of increase to the maximum after the financial tsunami. And professional investors in predicting future price movements, has been considered the influence of oil and the dollar sentiment indicators of institutional investors. Conversely, if the individual investor sentiment indicators (MCSI), the time when individual investors optimistic about the future price of gold (pessimistic), excessively bullish (bearish) current prices, and at the time of the next issue of reversal, reversal strength in the most intense during the financial crisis. We also found that in the larger stock market risk, people will choose to enter the gold market hedge. In financial crisis period, due to the market upheaval caused retail psychological panic, irrational investment behavior of its impact is greater than rational investment behavior of institutional investors for market impact. Institutional investors are not simply collect data to analyze past the expected future price movements of gold, but a truly professional look to create its rate of return on investment in gold. However, in advanced information and transaction information today many investors if multi-reference data, rather than reimbursing chasing kill low, think carefully before investing, understanding human psychological factors impulsive investment behavior, should be able to invest in this way reduce losses.
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