| 摘要: | 本研究在利用系統動態學建置經濟成長與電力消費互動之模型分析，著重在電力供給面與需求面之策略設計與情境模擬，利用系統動態學環環相扣與回饋等特性，探討台灣經濟成長與電力消費彼此互相影響的因果關聯。根據以往研究各國經濟成長與電力消費的研究文獻，少有研究將各產業部門的電力消費結構及用電性質納入考量，絕大多僅針對電力消費與經濟成長間之關係進行實證研究。故本研究除探討總和電力消費與經濟成長之關係外，擬再向下將電力消費量區分為六大部門，分別為工業部門、住宅部門、服務業部門、運輸業部門、農業部門與能源部門自用等六個部門。分別探究各產業與經濟成長之關係，以檢視目前之電力結構與政策是否符合未來經濟成長預測，以供有關單位日後規劃相關能源與電力供給與開發政策之參考。
經研究分析實證結果顯示由總體實質國內生產毛額經濟成長與總電力消費的實證中，發現在短期觀察下，總體電力消費為因，經濟成長為果的單向因果關係；在長期觀察則顯示是經濟成長對總電力消費的單向因果關係，在透過統計學標準差分析比對結果顯示經濟成長與總體電力消費具相互因果關聯；整體來說，台灣經濟成長及總合電力消費是具有回饋的因果關係。
在工業部門電力消費與經濟成長方面，顯示工業用電的增加會促進實質國內生產毛額的成長。由於工業部門電力消費的變動會干擾經濟成長，故在政策意涵上，施行電力節約政策必須審慎評估，注重其實施方式及推動步驟，避免過當的節約用電而影響經濟成長。
在住宅與服務業部門的電力消費方面，在本研究利用統計學標準差變動架構所得結果則呈現住宅與服務部門的電力用電成長率變動情形非常平緩穩定並不會影響經濟成長，因此對於商業/服務業及家計部門所實施的電力節約措施而言，會是電力部門管理當局一項可推行的政策工具。
台灣為能源缺乏國家，自有能源匱乏高達百分之九十以上的能源皆需仰賴從國外進口。能源供給體系相對規模小而獨立 ，欠缺有的能源備援系統。基於民生需求、各產業發展、整體經濟發展、環境永續及社會正義之考量，臺灣需要投入更多的電力基礎建設，以支應電力需求的增加。我國長期平均電價偏低又欠缺節能誘因，未來應落實能源價格合理化，使電價合理反映內部與外部成本，以有效引導節能。;This research project utilizes the principle of System Dynamics to establish an interactive model that analyze the causal relationship between the economy growth and the electricity consumption in Taiwan. The purpose of the research is to develop a tool that could aid in the design of energy policies by the government through the use of a technique called Scenario Analysis for electricity demand and supply. This can be achieved through the use of the Interlock and Feedback characteristics featured in System Dynamics model.
A recent review of research literature on electricity supply and demand published by other countries shows that very few research has taken into consideration the differences in the nature of electric consumption among various industrial sectors. The absolute majority of the research literature are focusing on the verification of the relationship between the electricity consumption and the economic growth. It is for this reason that this research not only analyzes the relationship between the overall electricity consumption and the economic growth, but also attempts to explore further into the electricity consumption by dividing the general industries into 6 sectors: industrial, residential, service, transportation, agricultural, and energy. The relationship between the economic growth and the electricity consumption within each individual industrial sector has been explored so that a conclusion can be drawn whether the current energy structure and policy will meet the forecast of future economic growth. This research will provide a good reference for the responsible divisions in the government to make future energy and electricity development policies.
Through evidence-based analyses on the GDP growth and the electricity consumption, it is discovered that, in short term, the overall electricity consumption and the economic growth manifests a one-way causal relationship in which the electricity consumption is the cause and the economic growth being the effect; whereas, under longer term observation, it is evident that the economic growth has a one-way causal relationship to the electricity consumption. However, through a statistical standard deviation comparison and analysis, it can be demonstrated that the economic growth and the electricity consumption manifest a mutual causal relationship.
Generally speaking, the economic growth and the overall electricity consumption in Taiwan are of a by-directional causal relationship with mutual feedback.
In the industrial sector, the result shows that the increase in industrial electricity consumption will increase the GDP growth. Since the variation in the industrial electricity consumption will a direct impact on the economic growth, from the policy making standpoint, implementation of any electricity conservation policy must be reviewed with cautions. Emphasis shall be placed on measures and sequences to be taken in order to avoid any over-conservation that could have a adverse impact on the national economy.
In the residential and service sectors, this research uses the results from statistical standard deviation comparisons and analyses where the variations in electricity consumption are very slow and stable, and will not impact the economic growth. Therefore, it can be concluded that electricity conservation measures proposed for the residential and service sectors are a feasible policy tool to be implemented by the electricity management authority.
Taiwan is an energy deprived country, the dependency on imported energy is more than 90%. The scale of domestic energy supply is small, isolated, and lacks an energy backup system. In view of the domestic demand, industrial development, overall economic growth, environmental sustainability and social justice, Taiwan needs to invest more resources into the electrical infrastructure to meet the increase in the electricity demand. Taiwan′s long term average electricity price tends to be low and there is a lack of incentive for the general industries to conserve energy. It is herewith recommended that the energy pricing structure be rationalized so that the electricity price reflects both the internal and external costs. This will effectively incentivize energy conservation for the entire industries in Taiwan. |
