應用區別分析方法探討西北太平洋雙眼牆颱風生成因子;Applying Discriminant Analysis Method to Investigate the Formation Factors of Concentric Eyewall Typhoons in the Western North Pacific

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Title:	應用區別分析方法探討西北太平洋雙眼牆颱風生成因子;Applying Discriminant Analysis Method to Investigate the Formation Factors of Concentric Eyewall Typhoons in the Western North Pacific
Authors:	王立原;Wang, Li-Yuan
Contributors:	大氣科學學系
Keywords:	雙眼牆颱風;區別分析;海氣參數;concentric eyewall;discriminant analysis;air-sea parameter
Date:	2017-07-27
Issue Date:	2017-10-27 12:26:22 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	根據Hawkins and Helveson (2004)的研究，西北太平洋的強烈颱風有80%都歷經雙眼牆結構，為全球形成雙眼牆數量最多的區域。本研究利用ECMWF Interim再分析資料與SSMI微波衛星反演之合成熱能，以區別分析之統計方法分析2000年至2011年間西北太平洋之有雙眼牆的颱風(18個)與無雙眼牆的強烈颱風(18個)，得出區別分析的分類結果，以及各環境參數的貢獻量，接著對2012年至2015年的颱風做驗證。所使用的環境參數為850hPa相對渦度、850hPa相對濕度、200hPa輻散場、850hPa-200hpa垂直風切、海洋表層溫度、合成熱能等六項。2000年至2011年個案的分類結果之正確分類率為80.6%，且區別能力達顯著水準，而貢獻量較大的參數依序為850hPa-200hPa垂直風切、850hPa相對渦度、合成熱能。接著設定區別分數閾值，並對2012年至2015年強度曾達到中颱等級的颱風做驗證，分類結果之正確分類率為82%，且平均可在衛星觀測到雙眼牆結構前，提早約13.9小時得知颱風有雙眼牆結構。;According to the previous researches, the northwest Pacific occurs the most concentric eyewall (CE) Typhoon. Using ECMWF Interrim reanalysis data and composite energy data derived from SSMI microwave satellite, and utilize discriminant analysis method, to analysis the CE typhoon cases and non-CE typhoon cases. At the last, get the class result and parameters contribution, then verify the cases during 2012-2015. The parameters used in this study are 850hPa relative vorticity, 850hPa relative humidity, 200hPa divergence, 850hPa-200hPa vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature, and composite energy. The hit rate during 2000-2011 is 80.6%, and the discriminant ability is over significant level. Besides, the bigger contribution are 850hPa-200hPa vertical wind shear, 850hPa relative vorticity, and composite energy. Then, set the threshold of discriminant score, and verify the cases that intensity are strong during 2012-2015. The hit rate is 82%, and we can know when will format CE structure before satellite observed by average 13.9 hrs in advanced.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics ] Department of Earth Sciences

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