不動產開發業之經營策略分析─以高鐵桃園站特區為例

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题名:	不動產開發業之經營策略分析─以高鐵桃園站特區為例
作者:	林志敏;Lin, Chih-Min
贡献者:	高階主管企管碩士班
关键词:	青埔特區;雙鐵交會;實價登錄;Qingpu District;Double rail cross
日期:	2017-07-03
上传时间:	2017-10-27 13:54:54 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	青埔特區○註1都市計畫總面積達490公頃，是全台唯一具備3座捷運站的單一重劃區，其規劃藍圖係以高鐵桃園站為核心，連結A17領航站、A18高鐵桃園站及A19桃園體育園區站，與高鐵形成「雙鐵交會」，通勤便利性堪稱全桃園之最，前往桃園國際機場僅數站距離，加上高鐵快速運輸的優勢，有機會進一步吸納外來移入人口；而除了交通題材外，青埔特區還有分期營運中的A18站華泰名品城、興建中的A19站冠德BOT商務城等大型開發案，加上即將於A19站北側設置國際世貿中心與國際會議中心，以及亞洲創新研發人才交流中心的「亞洲·矽谷」計畫；此外，桃園市立美術館也確定落腳A19站附近的青塘園旁，尚有橫山書法公園及書法美術館等重大建設，都為青埔特區擘劃出美麗的遠景。本研究蒐集青埔特區內101～105年內政部實價登錄資料進行分析，五年來總成交件數為4,693筆，總成交金額808億6仟5佰萬元，移轉總面積為331,834坪；五年間因各建案產品完工時間不同，各廠商的市占率在交屋潮效應下，起伏不定，相互影響。在房市景氣低迷時期，最明顯的徵兆就是大坪數、高總價產品滯銷，小坪數、中低總價的產品成為主力；青埔特區也顯現出同樣的徵兆，在餘屋量居高情形下，建商當前最佳的經營策略就是儘速出清餘屋，短期內不宜再推新案銷售，俟餘屋數量減少後，再伺機推新個案，且宜以首購族為目標，產品規劃策略則宜以中、小坪數、中低總價產品為主。房市景氣不佳是既定事實，青埔特區近年受到政府打房影響，前兩年銷況不似之前熱絡，但豐富的建設題材與機場捷運通車，仍然會是北台灣不動產市場難得一見的熱門區域，尤其是在國泰人壽以每坪土地約百萬元行情得標，顯見對於青埔日後發展仍頗具信心。政策干擾因素也已消失，房市勢將回歸區域基本面，而青埔特區的各種優越條件，有機會成為北台灣不動產市場領先回穩的指標區域。;The total planned area of Qingpu district is about 490 hectares. It is the only single district with three MRT stations. Its planning blueprint is based on Taoyuan HSR Station as core connecting with A17 Linghang Station, A18 Taoyuan HSR Station and A19 Taoyuan Sports Park Station, and achieve "Double rail cross" with High Speed Rail. The convenience of commute is called the most in Taoyuan City. Taoyuan International Airport is only a few stops away from Qingpu district, plus the advantages of the rapid transit, it will accommodate more foreigners/immigrants to increase population; In addition to the convenient transportation, there are a few construction projects in progress such as Gloria Outlets in A18 Station, Green Mall, Taoyuan World Trade Center, Taoyuan International Convention Center in A19 Station. Also, Asia Silicon Valley Development Agency is located in Qingpu District. Additionally, there will be Taoyuan Fine Arts Museum, Hengshan Calligraphy Park, Calligraphy Art Museum, etc. to make Qingpu District as a glorious city. This research shows the result of analyzing the transactions published by Dept. of Land Administration between the period of 2012~2016. Total amount of transactions is 4,693, on a turnover of NT$80.865 billion, with a total transfer area of 1,096,752.8 Square meters. The manufacturers’ market shares ups and downs due to the difference between completion times of constructions. When the housing market downturn, one of the most obvious signs is the houses which are big and high total price are overstock; on the other hand, the houses which are small and low total price become as the main products. Qingpu district shown the signs mentioned above as well. The best sale strategy in this case is to sell the house as soon as possible and do not promote new construction projects in the short term. After the reduction of the number of vacant house, the manufacturers should promote a few construction projects which are aimed at first-time shoppers and the main products should be small space and low total price. Although the poor housing market and the policy of the government cause the housing sales are not good in recent two years, Qingpu district would still be the popular area in real estate market in north Taiwan because of the numerous of construction projects and the MRT starts to operate. Also, Cathay Life Insurance won the bidding as NT$303,030 per square meter, obviously still have quite confident for the future development of Qingpu district. Due to the interference factors of policy have disappeared, the housing market will return to the regional fundamentals. There is a great chance that Qingpu district will become the indicators of leading stabilizing the market because of the advantages conditions here.
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