民粹主義對所得的影響: 亞洲四小龍比較

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Title:	民粹主義對所得的影響: 亞洲四小龍比較
Authors:	王鴻維;Wang, Hung-Wei
Contributors:	產業經濟研究所
Keywords:	民主化;薪資停滯;民粹主義;Democratization;Wage stagnation;Populism
Date:	2017-08-21
Issue Date:	2017-10-27 13:59:23 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	在經歷了長期的戒嚴時期，1990年代後台灣逐步的民主化且成功的從獨裁政權邁向民主政權，台灣也成為第三波民主化浪潮下成功的典範。時至今日台灣的政治及經濟環境是相當的民主及自由的。但相較於政治成功的自由民主化，在所得成長方面，台灣在近十幾年可說是陷入停滯的困境。相較於台灣在獨裁時期中被世界所讚許的經濟發展，而在近年來的成功民主化轉型後，經濟發展的成果卻不如獨裁時期，這不禁令人好奇不斷的追求民主化是否對於經濟成長絕對是有利的。因此，本文將從近年日益興盛的民粹主義來探討台灣薪資停滯的問題並以亞洲四小龍做比較，民粹主義的主要概念為政治必須遵照人民的偏好才是對的，即人民至上，社會上不同的議題都必須要尊重並參考人民的的聲音，如此情況雖是民主國家所以引為傲的，但另一方面卻會使的政策的執行無效率，執政黨為了選票考量可能會只重視短期利益而忽略了國家的長期發展，最終將不利國家整體經濟成長。本文研究國家為台灣、南韓、香港及新加坡，研究期間為1990-2013年，應變數為Log 人均GDP ( PPP )，主要解釋變數民粹度是由媒體自由度分數轉換而來，可作為本文民粹主義的量化數據，並以民粹度的平方項來探討其影響是否有轉折點的存在。觀察迴歸結果後發現，台灣及香港的民粹度為先正向後負向；南韓為負向；新加坡則無顯著影響，也就是過度興盛的民粹主義是不利於台灣及香港的所得成長的。 ;After a long period of martial law, Taiwan′s gradual democratization and success from the dictatorship to the democratic regime since the 1990s, Taiwan has become a successful example of the third wave of democratization. The political and economic environment of Taiwan today is quite democratic and free. But compared to the political democratization, in terms of income growth, Taiwan can be said to be stagnant in the dilemma in the past decade. Compared with the economic development that Taiwan has been praised by the world in the dictatorship, the economic development is not as good as the dictatorship in the recent years after the successful democratization. This can not help but wonder whether to pursue democratization for economic growth is absolutely beneficial. Therefore, this study will focus on populism to discuss the problem of Taiwan′s wage stagnation and to compare the four tigers in Asia, the main concept of populism is that politics must follow the people′s preferences, that is, different issues in society must respect and refer to the voice of the people, in this case, it is proud to be a democratic country, but on the other hand it will make the implementation of the policy inefficient, the ruling party may only consider the short-term interests of the ruling party and ignore the long-term development of the country, and ultimately will hamper the overall economic growth of the country. This paper studies countries for Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, the study period is from 1990 to 2013, the dependent variable is Log per capita GDP (PPP), the main independent variable pop is the result of the conversion of media degrees of freedom, it can be used as quantitative data of populism in this study, and to use the square of pop to discuss whether there is a turning point. After observing the results of the regression, it was found that the pop of Taiwan and Hong Kong were positive to negative; South Korea was negative; there is no significant impact in Singapore. that is, excessive prosperity of populism is not beneficial to the growth of Taiwan and Hong Kong′s income.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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