影響越南能源消耗及二氧化碳排放之因素： 從2007到2012投入產出結構分解分析;Factors Affecting Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Vietnam: an Input-Output Analysis from 2007 to 2012

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題名:	影響越南能源消耗及二氧化碳排放之因素：從2007到2012投入產出結構分解分析;Factors Affecting Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Vietnam: an Input-Output Analysis from 2007 to 2012
作者:	拉玫方;Mai Phuong, La
貢獻者:	機械工程學系
關鍵詞:	泰國;投入產出;二氧化碳排放量;Energy policy;Input-Output;CO2 emissions
日期:	2018-01-22
上傳時間:	2018-04-13 11:29:35 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	自1986年改革以來，越南一直在經歷著快速的工業化、現代化和城市化。在1990 - 2015年期間，越南的能源消耗量每年以5.3％的速度增長。伴隨能源消耗的快速增長諸如能源效率低下以及環境污染等所要解決的問題也相應而生。因此，越南政府實施了能源效率和（EEC）政策，以提高能源效率和減少能源損失。在這項研究中，採用(投入產出法)分析直接能源和排放強度、總能量和排放強度。透過應用能源和排放分析識別實驗的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量增加。另外，採用基於投入產出模型的結構分解分析方法，探討對影響越南2007 - 2012年能源消費變化的關鍵因素。結果顯示，越南的能源消耗與二氧化碳排放量略有改善。在實施節能減排政策的期間，越南的能源消耗與惡氧化碳排放量確實降低。根據能量消耗與二氧化碳排放排放分解分析所呈現，2007年間能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的最大成因為家庭消耗。然而在2012年時越南的出口的耗能超過了家庭消耗成為第一的影響因素。除此之外，從結構分解結果可得知人均總需求變動效應（ΔK）是越南能源消費和二氧化碳排放增加的最強因素，其次是消費結構變動效應（ΔB）。對於(內含能源)、能效變化效應（Δδ）和生產結構變動效應（ΔL）是抵消2007 - 2012年期間內在能源增加的負面效應。對於二氧化碳排放量來說，直接能源強度變化)（Δδs）和生產結構變化效應（ΔL）之和是導致2007 - 2012年期間二氧化碳排放量減少的主要因素 ;Vietnam has been experiencing rapid industrialization, modernization and urbanization since the 1986 reform program. During the period of 1990-2015, energy consumption of Vietnam has annually increased at a rate of 5.3%. The rapid increase in energy consumption has led to several challenges in security of energy supply issue, poor energy efficiency and environmental pollution. Therefore, Vietnamese government implemented the energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) polices in order to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy losses. In this study, an input-output approach is applied to analyze the direct energy and emissions intensities, total energy and emissions intensities. Embodied energy and CO2 emissions analysis is applied to identify the main contributors to energy consumption and CO2 emissions increases. In addition, the structural decomposition analysis methodology based on input-output model is adopted to examine the key factors affecting the changes in energy consumption of Vietnam during the period 2007-2012. The results revealed that there was a slight improvement of energy and CO2 emissions intensity in Vietnamese economy. The implementation of energy efficiency and conservation policies has assisted Vietnamese economy in reducing energy intensity during the investigated years. Embodied energy and emissions decomposition analysis indicated that household consumption was the largest contributor to embodied energy and emissions in 2007. However contribution of exports surpassed household consumption’s contribution to become the first leading source of embodied energy and emissions in 2012. Furthermore, the structural decomposition results showed that per-capita total final demand change effect (ΔK) were the strongest effect in increasing energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Vietnam, followed by consumption structure change effect (ΔB). For embodied energy, energy efficiency change effect (Δδ) and production structure change effect (ΔL) were negative effects that offset the increases in embodied energy during the period of 2007-2012. For embodied CO2 emissions, sum of direct energy intensity change (Δδs) and production structure change effect (ΔL) were the main drivers helped the decrease of embodied CO2 emissions during the period of 2007-2012
顯示於類別:	[機械工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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