應用存活分析法於高速公路事故之研究;A Study on Freeway Traffic Accident Using Survival Analysis Method

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題名:	應用存活分析法於高速公路事故之研究;A Study on Freeway Traffic Accident Using Survival Analysis Method
作者:	周佳穎;Chou, Chia-Ying
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	事故分析;存活分析;Cox等比例危險模式;Accident analysis;Survival Analysis;Cox proportional hazards mode
日期:	2018-07-18
上傳時間:	2018-08-31 11:23:27 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	隨著社會進步，國內之交通路網日趨完善，連接南北之高速公路國道1號儼然成為台灣西部走廊的主要動脈，而國道1號因串聯區域主要以都會區為主，車流量也較密集。高速公路道路環境較封閉且有車流量大與車速快之特性，不免會發生交通事故並產生回堵情況，造成用路人行車安全之負面影響，以及時間與財務上之損失，同時也會增加所付出之社會成本。因此，本研究針對交通量及事故件數相對較高之國道1號進行後續分析，希望能找出事故原因進而提出改善，以降低事故發生率或減輕事故嚴重性。本研究主要透過文獻回顧將可能影響事故之因素分為幾何特性、車流特性跟氣候三大類共12項變數，並參考設計規範或透過分析定義影響變數來建構Cox等比例危險模式，經過參數校估、模式配適檢定及等比例檢定來找出顯著變數。再針對顯著變數進行相對風險及路段事故次數推估。研究結果顯示，有25%事故之間隔時間超過503天、50%事故之間隔時間超過203天、75%事故之間隔時間超過62天，經由檢定後得到「縱坡度」、「流量」、「曝光量」、「氣溫」4項變數具有顯著性，表示以上變數可以有效解釋事故之間隔時間。 ;With the progress of society, the domestic traffic network has gradually improved. The National Freeway No. 1 connecting the north and the south has become the main artery of the Western Corridor of Taiwan. Because the tandem area is dominated by the metropolitan area, the traffic volume is also more intensive. The road environment of the expressway is relatively closed and has the characteristics of large traffic flow and fast speed. It will inevitably lead to traffic accidents and back-blockages, resulting in negative impacts on driving safety, time lapse and financial losses, as well as higher social cost. Therefore, this study conducts follow-up analysis on National Freeway No. 1 with a relatively high traffic volume and number of accidents. It hopes to identify the cause of the accident and then propose improvements to reduce the accident rate or reduce the severity of the accident. In this study, the factors that may affect the accident are divided into 12 variables of geometric characteristics, traffic flow characteristics and climate, and reference the design specification or define the impact variables through analysis and definition to construct the Cox proportional hazards model through parameter review, model matching test and equal proportion test to find out significant variables. The relative risk and the number of accidents in the road section are estimated by the significant variables. The research validated that 25% of the accidents interval would be more than 503 days, 50% of the accidents interval would be more than 203 days and 75% of the accidents interval would be more than 62 days. After verification, the “slope”, “flow”, “exposed quantity” and “temperature” four variables are significant, indicating that the above variables can effectively explain the interval of accidents.
顯示於類別:	[土木工程研究所] 博碩士論文

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