近年來建築業的發展於政策、經濟、法令的多重限制下，不若高科技產業等明星產業，產量及需求上也明顯降低，在本業獲利偏低的情況下，極易因公司財務體質的不佳而爆發財務危機。因此，瞭解建築業發生財務危機的主因並加以預防是一項極為重要的工作。有鑑於前人對建築業之財務危機特性已有初步之研究，然缺乏充足之數理統計基礎，況且財務分析的結果會隨著時間及整體環境的改變而有所不同，本研究納入民國86年至90年的財務資料進行研究樣本的更新，以探求新一階段營建產業的財務危機。 在蒐集建築業之財務指標並透過因素分析及Logit分析後，本研究建立一套專屬建設公司的財務危機預警模式，其模型在建設公司財務危機發生的前一、二、三年預測能力可達到83.9％、80.0％及67.7％，除可瞭解建設公司財務體質惡化時，觀察具代表性的財務指標外，更可透過模型的計算，獲知公司實際之營運狀況及是否容易發生財務危機。 利用財務指標分析及模型建立，本研究認為建設公司在財務危機發生的前一及前二年，公司需從提升純益率及存貨週轉率，並降低負債比率著手，提高營業利益及稅後損益，降低負債總額，並確保存貨週轉率能有效的提高，如此則對於改善建設公司之財務體質有最大之效益。 Recent developments in Taiwan’s construction industry only endorse the dynamic and volatile nature of the Property Development Sector. Most developer firms suffer huge revenue reduction and loss. Most firms, which manage to survive the recession, o not see any deterministic path of evolution. Yet, those who resist the trend of change do receive a strong warning of extinction from the financial reports. The aim of this work is try to develop a means of looking into the future of the private construction sector, via careful examination of financial data being acquired from the troubled firms in the recent past. This work compiles all obtainable financial reports of troubled developer firms from 1997 to 2001. A crisis-warning model is being envisaged based on the famous Logit Model. Based on the acquired financial data and the proposed Logit model, the forecast capacity is fairly acceptable, with correct rate of 83.9%, 80.0% and 67.7% for the past one, two and three years respectively. Thus, the proposed model does render useful in predicting a crisis status through existing financial data. Also in this work, there exist strong correlations between financial failure and net earning and inventory turnover ratios. Evidently, a developer may not want to focus on the profit generated from sales, but will be best to emphasize on customer needs, so that sales can still be managed at high volume, thus enhance greatly the firm’s liquidity and solvency.
