| 摘要: | 本篇論文主要探討影響中小企業貸款違約之因素，研究期間以2012~2013年中小企業申請信用保證基金保證資料為樣本，挑選出企業成立年限、負債淨值比率、營收比率、資本額、員工人數、銷售營業額、信保保證金額、信保保證成數、負責人性別、行業別等10項變數，透過差異性檢定分析及邏輯斯迴歸分析進行實證研究，研究結果發現(一)透過差異性檢定分析，可得知違約戶在企業成立年限、員工人數、銷售營業額、信保保證金額及信保保證成數等5項變數平均值均較正常戶為低，且差異顯著，代表這5項變數與違約機率呈現負相關性，且具有顯著影響力。(二)透過邏輯斯迴歸分析，發現企業成立年限、員工人數、信保保證金額、信保保證成數等4項變數與違約機率呈現顯著負相關；而資本額則與違約機率呈現顯著正相關，資本額愈大，違約機率反而愈高，代表企業規模愈大，風險未必降低，研究結果可有效提昇銀行對中小企業信用風險管理能力，做為評估中小企業融資時之依據。;This paper mainly discusses the factors affecting the SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) loan default.
Take SMEs apply for credit guarantee fund from 2012 to 2013 as a sample, through T-test and logistic regression analysis, selecting ten of variables: the number of years of establishment, debt ratio, business finance ratio, amount of capital, number of employees, sales revenue, amount of credit guarantee, credit guarantee ratio, gender of the owner, and industry...etc. to perform empirical research.
The results of the study found that (I) Through T-test, it can be known that there′re five variables of loan default, including the number of years of establishment, number of employees, sales revenue, amount of credit guarantee, and credit guarantee ratio, are all lower than the average, and its differences are significant. It implies that these five variables represent a negative correlation with the default probability, and the influence is significant. (II) Through logistic regression analysis, it can be found that there′re four variables, such as the number of years of establishment, the number of employees, amount of credit guarantee, and the credit guarantee ratio, are negatively related to the probability of default; but the amount of capital are positively related to the probability of default, which means the larger amount of capital, the larger probability of the default is. It also indicates the risk may not be reduced with the company size increased.
The purpose of this study is effectively to enhance the bank′s ability to manage credit risk of SMEs, and to be a basis for evaluating the financing of SMEs. |
