| 摘要: | 2011年福島核災，再次喚起核能安全問題，政府推出非核家園的願景，積極推廣再生能源，透過FIT電能躉購機制、陽光屋頂百萬座及綠能屋頂全民參與等政策加速推展。近十年全球低利環境及再生能源躉購制度之施行，為太陽光電系統業者提供了合理的利潤。此外，太陽能建置成本亦逐年降低，使投資太陽光電系統成為當前值得探討之投資途徑。
筆者任職金融業，面對新能源公司向銀行尋求資金支援，對於業者投入龐大的建置成本後，其發電效能是否真如其所預期，為其帶來利潤並保障銀行還款來源，實值得探討，因此興起研究本議題之念。
本文利用淨現值、內部報酬率、還本期間及獲利指數等方法，以裝置容量為499瓩之屋頂型高效能太陽能發電系統為研究對象，將台灣北到南到東，分12個地區進行財務分析，利用蕭子訓、黃孔良及張耀仁(2017)所蒐集2004年至2016年間中央氣象局全天空日射量資料，以此資料評估各地發電量，並依其資料進行敏感性分析。發現台灣各地區於正常發電情形皆適合投資建置太陽能發電系統；於敏感性分析部分，發現遜於正常發電、發電效能加速遞減及折現率、融資利率提高等之情形下，基隆市不適合建置太陽能發電系統；另南部較北部適合建置太陽能發電系統，而北部苗栗因躉購價格加成下亦屬適合建置地區。另於正常發電及敏感性分析之5種情境下，內部報酬率介於4.184%至9.951%，因此，於現今之利率水準下，搭配銀行融資較全部以自有資金操作為佳，此點亦顯示其還款金流穩定。
;In 2011, the nuclear disaster in Fukushima once again raised the issue of nuclear safety. The government launches a vision for nuclear-free homeland and actively promotes renewable energy. It has been accelerating the development of solar energy through adopting the FIT electricity purchasing mechanism, the Sunshine Rooftop Million PVs, and the Green Energy Rooftop Participation Policy.
An era of low interest rates following the global financial crisis, as well as FIT electricity purchasing mechanism provides reasonable profits and stable cash flows for participators. Besides, the overall cost of installations has also been reduced year by year, making investment in solar photovoltaic systems a worth exploring issue.
Being a worker of banking industry, the writer was very curious and needed to know if the power generation efficiency would meet expectation, bring profits for investors and protect payment resource. This is also why the writer studies the topic.
This Study adopts NPV, IRR, payback, and PI to analyze rooftop-type high-efficiency solar power systems with an installed capacity of 499 KW. The analyses of the financial feasibility cover Taiwan’s 12 areas, from the north to the south, as well as the east. The data of full-sky solar radiation from 2004 to 2016 collected by Xiao Xixun, Huang Kongliang, and Zhang Yaoren (2017) was used to evaluate the capacities of electricity generated in each area. And sensitivity analyses were conducted also based on the said data. The result of analyses showed that all areas in Taiwan are suitable for investment in solar power generation systems in normal situation. However, in the sensitivity analysis section, it was found that Keelung City is not suitable for building solar power system under the circumstance of accelerated reduction in power generation efficiency, higher discount rates, and higher financing rates. The result also demonstrated that the southern areas are more suitable for building solar power systems. In addition, thanks to better price of FIT electricity purchasing mechanism, Miaoli is also suitable for investment. In the five scenarios including normal power generation and sensitivity analysis, the IRR is between 4.184% and 9.951%. Therefore, at the current interest rate level, it is better to use bank financing than to operate with participators’ own funds. It also implies that the payment resource of bank financing is stable. |
