研究主要目的是當發生違約後， 銀行債權可以回收比率會是多少?有什麼因素可以降低銀行損失增加回收率? 研究資料以使用問卷方式，發送給本研究金融機構授信人員，透過問卷回收方式取得該往來客戶授信相關資料作為探討，而其資料範圍主要為以該金融機構於106年12月31日前違約之中小企業案件為研究對象，有效樣本數為43戶。 依照迴歸模型進行違約因子對於回收率影響之實證分析，來預測授信違約影響回收率之顯著因子有哪些?總共使用以下二種方式進行分析： 個別特性變數模型分析:具有顯著性且為正相關的自變數為負責人配偶有作保 、貸款前二年營益率成長率 、貸款前二年現金、貸款前三年營授比、存款擔保品比率及貸款期間。具有顯著性且為負相關的自變數為負責人是否已婚? 、貸款前三年營益率成長率、貸款前一年營授比、貸款前三年現金、貸款前二年營益率、貸款前一年營益率及貸款前二年負債淨值比。 有顯著性之正負相關性變數模型分析:貸款前二年營益率成長率、貸款前三年營授比、存款擔保品比率及貸款期間與回收率有顯著正相關，而貸款前一年營授比、貸款前一年營益率、貸款前二年負債淨值比有顯著負相關。 ;The main purpose of this study is to examine the factors that affect recovery rate of bank loans. Our data comes from a commercial bank in Taiwan and defaulted before December 31, 2017. The effective number of samples is 43 firms. According to correlation analysis, we find that the following variables are significantly and positively correlated with recovery rate: spouse as guarantor, rate of profit growth rate in two years before applying loan, credit amount and turnover ratio in three years before applying loan , cash in two years before applying loan , compensated deposits accounted for loan ratios and loan period. The following variables are significantly and negatively correlated with recovery rate: the marital status of the chairman, rate of profit growth rate in three years before applying loan, credit amount and turnover ratio in one year before applying loan, cash in three years before applying loan, profit rate in two years before applying loan, profit rate in one year before applying loan and total liabilities to net worth ratio in two years before applying loan.
According to the OLS regression analysis, we find that the following variables are significantly and positively correlated with recovery rate: rate of profit growth rate in two years before applying loan, credit amount and turnover ratio in three years before applying loan, compensated deposits accounted for loan ratios and loan period. The following variables are significantly and negatively correlated with recovery rate: credit amount and turnover ratio in one year before applying loan, profit rate in one year before applying loan and total liabilities to net worth ratio in two years before applying loan.
