租購屋決策之長期福祉－ 一個整合性模擬分析系統;Long-term Benefits in house renting or buying－ An integrated Simulation Analysis System

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题名:	租購屋決策之長期福祉－一個整合性模擬分析系統;Long-term Benefits in house renting or buying－ An integrated Simulation Analysis System
作者:	陳惠蘭;Chen, Hui-Lan
贡献者:	財務金融學系在職專班
关键词:	租購屋決策;區位選擇;情境模擬
日期:	2018-07-09
上传时间:	2018-08-31 14:29:05 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	受有土斯有財的普遍觀念影響及長久以來租屋市場未能健全發展下，緃使高房價已成為民怨，社會大眾對於買屋仍然趨之若鶩，然而在擁屋所需付出的成本及代價不斷增加下，本文試圖探討比較除了「購屋」之外，「租屋」及「先租後買」對家計單位長期的生活品質及財富累積效果。考量未來大環境的不確定性，由於影響總體經濟環境的變因太多，無法一一涵蓋及分析，因此本文以情境模擬搭配所得、房價、利率及物價等隨機過程的隨機模擬分析方式，探討在面臨不確定的大環境變動下，租購決策之長期影響。研究結果發現未來環境的變遷無論是景氣波動劇烈、失落的 30 年或是 M 型化社會下，在搭配期待兼顧理想生活居住品質、扶養上下二代或家計所得改變等條件下，「租屋」方案帶來的福利效果皆大於「購屋」或「先租後買」方案。而「購屋」或「先租後買」方案的退休財富結果比較上，則受外在環境因素影響而互有消長。故本研究建議租屋市場的健全化在高房價的台北市都會區是必要且迫切的；期許政府現正推動的「租賃專法」能同時滿足居住需求與居住品質，使租屋市場更有效率，提供大眾在居住選擇上做出最佳的租屋或購屋決策。;With long-term underdeveloped of rental housing market, and under the influence of general concept, real estate is the symbol of wealth in that people are pursuing to be homeowners even house prices are high. As the cost and expense of owning houses is rising, the goal of this study focus on discovering, in addition to house purchase, the long-term effects of house renting and rent-then-own on quality of life and wealth accumulation for a family. Since macro environment is affected by multiple variables and we are unable to cover them all for analysis, scenario analysis and simulation models with random variables of income, house prices, interest rate and commodity price are used to explore the long-term consequence in decision-making of house renting or buying under environment uncertainty of changes. The results show that house renting brings the biggest benefits, compared with house purchase and rent-then-own, after we account for numerous factors including fluctuations, the M-Form Society, earnings changes, and the expectation of good quality of life. However, the difference between the influence of home buying and rent-then-own on retirement wealth is small. Therefore, it is essential and urgent to develop a well rental housing market in the metropolitan area of Taipei. The promulgation of the Leasing Act is expected to not only fulfill residential needs and quality, but also to offer people with the best choice of house renting or buying, and then to contribute to the efficiency of rental housing market.
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