不動產開發業之經營績效預估分析─以桃園市中路特區為例

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题名:	不動產開發業之經營績效預估分析─以桃園市中路特區為例
作者:	黃瑜;Huang, Yu
贡献者:	高階主管企管碩士班
关键词:	不動產;經營績效;Real Estate
日期:	2018-06-29
上传时间:	2018-08-31 14:29:59 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	中路特區位於桃園市文中路、廈門街、國際路、永安路所圍之地區，範圍涵蓋了桃園市三個都市計畫區，分別為桃園市、縱貫公路桃園內壢間、南崁地區等，面積總計為121.06 公頃，是桃園區史上面積最大的純住宅重劃區。綠化方面有1座中央公園、2座鄰里公園及6處兒童遊樂場；區內除文山國小及中興國中外，另再規劃2處文中、2處文小用地；另有「市府行政園區」及「司法園區」雙行政園區，預計未來可帶動該區發展；聯外交通方面，經由國道二號往西可到國道一號、桃園機場、高鐵桃園站，或通往鶯歌、八德及國道三號，因可利用大興西路連結中正藝文特區及南桃園交流道，南北往來均很便利；生活機能以中正藝文特區及縣府特區之周邊地區商圈為主，店家密度較高。中路特區目前正以飛快速度發展中，未來前景看好，為各界寄予高度期待的優質純住宅區，目前已有多家大型建商進駐陸續推出新建案。本研究搜集桃園市不動產交易網自101年起至106年止，中路特區及緊鄰之藝文特區、縣府特區龍安區之所有各類型建物成交件數之統計分析，包含5年內新大樓、中古大樓、公寓、透天厝、店面、土地及其它等之所有成交件數，得出中路特區購屋消費者最喜愛的產品為大樓產品，建商推出的產品百分之九十以上均為大樓產品，從土地成交件數亦可看出建商從102年起即已積極佈署該區土地購置，進行開發案規劃。另研究整理住展雜誌、惟馨周報資料有關中路特區所有建案之基地面積、規劃戶數、推案量、規劃坪數、房數等，以分析中路特區內建案之市場結構，推案量部份再佐以桃園市總推案量及桃園市桃園區總推案量與中路特區推案量作佔率比較分析，得出中路特區之推案量佔桃園市推案量的27.02%，佔桃園市桃園區推案量之60.77%。在此市場結構下分析廠商行為及預估廠商績效之關聯性，推估該區建案如可完銷及以預期價格銷售，則預期尚有獲利空間。中路特區產品規劃策略多以中、小坪數及2-3房之中、低價位產品為主，以首購族為目標，區內多數建案將於今年及明年至後年轉為成屋個案，鄰近之經國重劃區亦有大量新案推出，屆時此兩大重劃區將會有數千戶量體釋出，此外，桃園市後續有小檜溪自辦重劃區，將再放大供給量。未來在供給大於需求的情形下，價格有可能再做下修。中路特區區內個案因同質性高，未來有可能成為價格競爭戰，故不動產開發業者之經營策略除須謹慎評估現行建案未來去化情形，於規劃後續推案亦須衡酌市場供給與需求的均衡，不宜貿然推出，避免去化不易，影響獲利，甚或導致虧損情形發生。;The Central Roads Area Zone is located in the area of Wenzhong Road, Siamen Street, Guoji Road and Yong’an Road in Taoyuan City. The scope covers three urban planning areas in Taoyuan City, With a total area of 121.06 hectares, it is the largest pure residential rezone in the history of Taoyuan. There is a Central Park, 2 minor parks and 6 children′s playgrounds for greening. In addition to WenShan Elementary School and ChungHsing Junior High School, the district plans 2 Medium sized Schools and 2 Small sized Schools in the area; There are also dual administrative parks, "Municipal Administrative Park" and "Judicial Park", which are expected to drive the development of the area in the future; For contact outside traffic, you can go to Freeway No.1, Taoyuan Airport, and Taoyuan High Speed Rail Station via Freeway No.2., or leading to Yingge, Bade and Freeway No. 3, because Daxing West Road can be used to link the Taoyuan′s Zhong zheng Arts District and South Taoyuan Interchange. North-South travel is very convenient. Life function is dominated by the business districts of Taoyuan′s Zhong zheng Arts District and the surrounding areas of the prefecture area, and the store density is high. The Central Roads Area Zone is currently developing at a rapid pace and the future is promising. For high-quality pure residential areas that have been highly anticipated for all sectors, there have been a number of large-scale construction companies that have recently launched new projects. This study collected Taoyuan City Real Estate Trading Network from 101 to 106 years. The statistical analysis of the number of transactions of all types of buildings in the Central Roads Area Zone and Taoyuan′s Zhong zheng Arts District and the Longan District of the prefectural capital, it is concluded that the products most favored by home buyers in the Central Roads Area Zone are building products. More than 90% of the products launched by the company are building products. From the number of land deals, it can also be seen that from the 102nd year onwards, the constructors have been actively deploying the purchase of the land in the area to carry out the development plan. Another study the base area, planned number of houses, number of cases pushed forward, number of planned floors, number of rooms, etc. To analyze the market structure of the built-in case of the Central Roads Area Zone, it was concluded that the number of cases promulgated by the Central Roads Area Zone accounted for 27.02% of the caseload in Taoyuan City. It accounted for 60.77% of the Taoyuan Park in Taoyuan City. Under this market structure, the analysis of the correlation between vendor behavior and estimated vendor performance, it is expected that there will be room for profitability if it is estimated that the construction of the district can be completed and sold at the expected price. Due to the high homogeneity, it is possible to become a price competition in the future. Therefore, the business strategy of the real estate development industry must not be careful to assess the current situation of building a future case. The follow-up plans for planning must also balance the supply and demand of the market. Should not be introduced rashly, it is not easy to avoid future changes, affect profitability, or even cause loss.
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