全球暖化所引發的極端天氣(熱浪、乾旱、豪大雨)強度與頻率在過去30 年來有顯著增加趨勢， 台灣位於亞熱帶地區，同時受到熱帶和中緯度天氣系統影響，是屬於天然災害高風險、高衝擊地 區，了解全球暖化對極端天氣影響不僅是科學研究課題，也是關乎國家和社會安全的議題。本三 年期計劃擬以Yu and Neelin (1997) 早期發展的濕大氣動力學架構為基礎，結合近期Raymond et al. (2009)提出之濕穩定度理論，逐年改進模式之物理過程，發展一套適合熱帶地區之濕動力學架構， 以做為診斷熱帶地區氣候變遷機制之工具，模式適用性將以傳統氣象和衛星觀測進行校驗。 ;The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events (e.g., heat wave, draught and heavy rainfall) were found to significantly increase over the past three decades associated with global warming. Located in the subtropical region influenced jointly by tropical and extra-tropical weather systems, Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. Understanding how global warming impacts extreme weather events is not only a scientific study but also an issue of high social concern and national security. In this three-year project, we aim to successively develop a moist dynamic framework for tropical climate studies based on the early moist dynamic theory of Yu and Neelin (1997) and the new “moist stability theory” of Raymond et al. (2009). Validation of model will be conducted by comparing with observations from satellite and traditional meteorological network.
