地動預估式是地震危害度分析中重要的一項，由於地動預估式的標準差大小對於地震危害度分析結果有直接的影響；使用過大的標準差會導致過估地震危害度。此外，隱沒帶地震與一般淺部地殼地震的震源特性及衰減特性都不同，在分析地震危害時必須加以考量。隱沒帶地震又可以分為板塊界面型地震以及板塊內部型地震，兩者之衰減特性以及反應譜型亦有所不同，有必要分別做回歸，以得到更有代表性的反應譜及合理而較小的標準差。 相較於過去Lin and Lee (2008)研究以1992至2000年間之地震資料建立東北部隱沒帶地動預估式，本研究以1991年到2016年6月，年限共25年之中央氣象局自由場強地動觀測網計畫(TSMIP)以及台灣山區地震觀測網(MTN)蒐集之強震資料，篩選出隱沒帶界面型及內部型地震，使用混合效應模型且以最大概似法做回歸分析，並以連續型Vs30做為場址參數取代過去堅硬地盤、軟弱地盤之簡易分類，分別建立能代表兩型震源的尖峰地動加速度地動預估式，以及6個振動週期之反應譜加速度地動預估式(0.01秒、0.03秒、0.1秒、0.3秒、1秒、3秒)，期能區分這兩種類型地震之尖峰地動加速度及反應譜的差異，並降低地動預估式之標準差。 成果顯示，將兩類型地震分開建立回歸式後，所得之標準差比前人之研究成果低，下降之幅度介於0.0019~0.2019間，且反應譜形狀亦看得出差異。界面型地震長週期震波含量豐富，反應譜平台較寬；內部型地震短週期震波含量豐富，反應譜平台較窄。 ;A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) plays a crucial role in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the standard deviation (sigma) of GMPE influences the outcome hazard level directly. The larger the sigma, the greater the hazard. For the purpose of effectiveness and reducing the sigma, we must develop different GMPEs for crustal sources and subduction-zone sources, respectively. Furthermore, subduction zone earthquakes involves interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes, we must consider also developing different GMPEs for the two different subduction-zone earthquakes, since the interface earthquakes may have different characteristics of attenuation and different shapes of response spectrum with the intraslab earthquakes. In this study, we establish separate ground-motion relationships for interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes by using the earthquake data from Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) and Taiwan Mountain Seismic Network (MTN) with carefully baseline corrected and noise filtered. We test the effectiveness of different terms in a GMPE by stepwise regression in R, and the coefficients of the equation are determined using maximum likelihood estimattion and nonlinear mixed-effects model. The results show that the interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes do exhibit different characteristics of attenuation and different shapes of response spectrum; interface earthquakes contain more long-period motions and have a wider response spectrum, while intraslab earthquakes are rich in the high-frequency waves and have the narrower response spectrum shape, and the sigmas of the GMPEs are lower than that in the previous study.
