最強地震圓弧雙交叉之搜尋週期對台灣地區強震預測結果的影響;The influence of the searching period on the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes around Taiwan

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Title:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉之搜尋週期對台灣地區強震預測結果的影響;The influence of the searching period on the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes around Taiwan
Authors:	黃健倫;Huang, Chien-Lun
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;防災;強震;Strongest Intersection of Circular Arc of Earthquake;Strong Earthquake;disaster prevention
Date:	2020-07-09
Issue Date:	2020-09-02 14:21:56 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究利用李顯智老師提出的MATLAB程式ASICAE進行分析，此程式是將地震事件之座標顯示於台灣圖面上，選擇合適的地震事件規模最小值，透過觀察地震分佈情形，找出近似均勻排列之 5 個的地震事件繪出地震圓弧，由於地震圓弧交叉理論的日益精進與前人的努力，可以得知最強地震圓弧雙交叉的重要性，因此本論文採用最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行研究，並且對交叉發生後大震出現的天數進行數據的整理，以便於人們提前知曉大震的發生機率。此外，為了看出事件搜尋週期(參數dy)對程式的影響，本研究將dy分成dy=3、dy=6、dy=9、dy=10、dy=11、dy=15、dy=20，藉此來觀察當dy區間擴大時，與大震出現天數(參數dt)之間的關聯和物理意義。;This research uses ASICAE which created by H.C. Lei to select an appropriate minimum magnitude of seismic events to display the coordinates of the seismic events on the Taiwan map by MATLAB. And then we try to find the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes. Each of the two arcs of the strongest intersection is formed by five events distributed approximately uniformly along the arc. According to previous researches we know that the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes is the most important, so this thesis only focus on the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes. This research changes the values of the parameters of dy in order to analyze the variation of the value of dt.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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