影響土壤液化機率之不確定性分析和主要因素：以台灣中部為例

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Title:	影響土壤液化機率之不確定性分析和主要因素：以台灣中部為例
Authors:	吳珆緁;Wu, Yi-Jie
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	土壤液化;羅吉斯迴歸;臺灣中部地區;機率分析;Soil liquefaction;central Taiwan;probabilistic analysis;logistic regression
Date:	2020-07-28
Issue Date:	2020-09-02 14:29:42 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	台灣位於歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊交界處，屬於地震頻繁的交界帶，歷年來台灣發生多起地震，而地震過後引發之土壤液化更是造成台灣西部地區許多經濟損失及人員傷亡。因此，為了評估液化危害度，Iwasaki 等人在1982年提出液化潛能指數 (LPI)以及三種液化危害等級，由於此分類法無法量化，於是本研究主旨在於建立新的數學模型，將液化危害度量化，並根據文獻中所提供之圓錐貫入試驗 (CPT)數據，再利用羅吉斯迴歸建立出LPI與液化機率的關係式，並且使用國家地震中心提供之彰化縣員林市CPT鑽孔資料進行探討。鄰近彰化縣之主要活動斷層主要有兩個，分別為車籠埔斷層以及彰化斷層，依據前人分析得出之斷層滑移率、斷層長度以及再現週期，並且提出了最大地動加速度以及地震規模之經驗公式。然而，本研究將斷層機制代入地震規模之經驗式，進而得知最大地動加速度，並且利用斷層之再現週期推算地震發生機率，再經由Robertson分析法計算出液化潛能指數，再依本研究建立之數學模型得到土壤液化機率。而分析過程採用蒙地卡羅模擬（Monte Carlo Simulation, MCS），考慮數據之不確定性及提升預測地震發生機率之準確性。本研究也針對輸入參數進行個別分析，找出對最終機率結果影響最大之參數；而輸入之參數分別為1) 地下水位、2~5) 車籠埔斷層與彰化斷層之滑移率及再現週期、6~7) 地震規模及最大地動加速度之經驗公式誤差項。 ;Taiwan is located in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, typical continental edge islands produced by plate collisions. There have been many earthquakes in Taiwan over the years, and the soil liquefaction induced by the earthquake has caused many economic losses and casualties in western Taiwan. Therefore, in order to evaluate liquefaction hazard, liquefaction potential index (LPI) and a classification system were proposed by Iwasaki et al. (1982) for evaluating soil liquefaction potential. However, because the threshold is a descriptive assessment, this study aims to quantify the soil liquefaction probability based on a given LPI. Then, this thesis presents a new probabilistic procedure to evaluate time-dependent soil liquefaction probability based on CPT (Cone Penetration Test) data at the target site, including a case study in Yuanlin City in central Taiwan. On the other hand, we also present a Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate the earthquake-induced soil liquefaction probability in Taiwan, based on the geological data and engineering seismological data in the literature. The analysis includes the probabilistic estimates considering input-data uncertainties and the randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this probabilistic analysis, a total of 7 uncertainties were taken into account, including ground water level at the site (variable 1), the slip rate, and return period of two active faults (Chelungpu and Changhua fault) near the site, (variables 2-5), the error term of two empirical relationships (variables 6-7) used to estimate earthquake magnitude and PGA.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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