台灣最強地震圓弧雙交叉與後續強震之關聯（1982年至2012年）

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Title:	台灣最強地震圓弧雙交叉與後續強震之關聯（1982年至2012年）
Authors:	邱奕賢;Chiou, Yi-Shian
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	地震圓弧
Date:	2020-08-12
Issue Date:	2020-09-02 14:32:53 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	由於地震會造成地殼破裂，而近似均勻排列的多個地震事件點可能會形成應力集中現象，故此可以透過尋找兩個應力集中區域的交匯處，試著預測後續是否有地震發生。最強地震圓弧雙交叉係由地震目錄中地震規模較高處(例如；規模6以上)之地震逐步往下篩選，直到出現兩個各自由五個事件點均勻排列的弧形互相交匯，所找出的地震事件排列型態。本研究於台灣中央氣象局地震資料庫擷取地震資料，利用程式選取從1982年至2012年的不限地震深度之地震目錄繪製地震分布圖，再利用程式篩選出地震圓弧，並觀察所找到兩條最強弧線的交叉型態，我們以最早出現兩條弧線而且有兩個交叉的型態稱之為「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」，並將結果進行後一天的驗證，以確保當時段之最佳地震弧雙交叉。本研究的重點是探討不同的短搜尋週期對不限深度最強地震圓弧雙交叉的強震預測能力的影響，分別對5年、4年、3年、2年內的事件進行搜尋，對照統計的結果可以發現，最強地震圓弧雙交叉與後續強烈地震之間有較強的關聯性。 ;Earthquakes can cause a crustal rupture, and multiple seismic events arranged approximately uniformly may form a stress concentration phenomenon. By looking for the intersection of the two stress concentration areas, we may predict whether there will be an earthquake in the future. The strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes is found by a gradual downward reaching process of earthquakes, which is started with a magnitude of 6 or higher in the earthquake catalog and ended until two intersecting arcs of earthquakes have been found. This study retrieved seismic data from the Seismic Database of the Central weather bureau of Taiwan. A Matlab program is used to select earthquake events with any depth from 1982 to 2012, and to draw an earthquake distribution map. Afterr this, the program filters out the seismic arc and find out the intersection of the two strongest arcs of earthquakes. We focus on the strongest double intersection of the circular arcs of earthquakes, and the results will be verified one day after the intersection have been found to ensure the stability of the searching process. The aim of this study is to explore how the double intersections of any depth perform in the prediction of strong earthquakes in short periods. According to the statistical results within 5 years, 4 years, 3 years, and 2 years, we can find that, the strongest double intersections of the circular arcs of earthquakes have a strong correlation with the subsequent strong earthquakes.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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