推估氣候變遷下極端事件之洪峰水位;Estimating the Peak Water Level of Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change

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题名:	推估氣候變遷下極端事件之洪峰水位;Estimating the Peak Water Level of Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change
作者:	吳臻;Wu, Chen
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	極端降雨;洪峰水位;Wash123D;Extreme Precipitation;Peak Water Level;Wash123D
日期:	2020-08-17
上传时间:	2020-09-02 14:34:04 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	台灣因位處西太平洋颱風密集發生與東亞季風降雨之處，每年均發生個數不等之颱風、梅雨或夏季對流雨之極端降雨事件。這些極端降雨事件經常導致坡地崩塌、土石流或淹水積水等災害事件而本研究推估氣候變遷極端降雨對於鳳山溪流域之洪峰水位高度可作為日後集水區設計水工構造物或是土地開發時的參考依據。在資料處理上，以無因次方法做為標準化的依據，計算各個雨量站的降雨雨型，透過資料的標準化，有助於降雨特性的分析。研究結果顯示，在氣候變遷RCP 4.5的排放情境下，2050年，年最大一日暴雨若為延時3小時或6小時其洪峰水位相較過去年最大暴雨之歷史水位其高度將增加4%、0.69%，且極端降雨事件之洪峰水位達到一級警戒水位之事件數有變多的趨勢。;Due to Taiwan′s location where typhoons and East Asian monsoon rains occur intensively, extreme precipitation events, such as typhoons, rainy seasons or summer convective rain, occur in varying numbers every year. These extreme precipitation events often lead to disaster events such as slope collapse, debris flow, and flooding. This study estimates the maximum annual precipitation in 2050 considering climate change, which affects the peak water level of the Feng Shan River. The results can be used as a reference for the design of hydraulic structures or land development in the catchment area in the future. In terms of data processing, the dimensionless method is applied for standardization to analyze the precipitation pattern of two observation stations. Through the standardization of the data, the characteristics of precipitation can be analyzed. The results show that under the emission scenario of climate change RCP4.5, the peak water level of maximum annual daily precipitation in 2050 with a duration of 3 hours or 6 hours will increase by 4% or 0.69% respectively, compared to current peak water level of maximum annual daily precipitation. The number of incidents reaching the level-one alert of water level tends to increase in 2050.
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