去年我們所提計畫原規劃以三年時間(2019/08/01~2022/07/31)，探討全球暖化對熱帶地區對流和降水之影響，但科技部僅先核定一年期經費(計畫名稱：「全球暖化下熱帶對流和降水變化:氣柱能量學分析」)。今年我們所提內容基本上以去年的計劃書為主體，但工作項目進行局部微調後所提出之後續兩年期計畫，計畫名稱：「全球暖化下熱帶對流和降水變化:氣柱能量學分析(第二期)」。在此兩年期計畫中，我們擬使用CMIP6 HighResMIP (高解析模式比對計畫)系集平均資料，進行下列幾項研究工作: (i)分析全球暖化下，熱帶地區降水和對流(含:強度和結構)之變化、(ii) 探討全球暖化下，熱帶地區降水效率(precipitation efficiency)之變化、(iii) 分析全球暖化下，地表蒸發量之變化。我們也將使用對流準平衡近似之能量和水汽收支方程，探討造成上述變化之物理機制。 ;Last year, we submitted a three-year proposal to MOST to investigate the impacts of global warming on regional convection and precipitation changes across the tropics. Unfortunately, the proposal was approved only for the first-year by MOST (Project title「Changes in Tropical Convection and Precipitation under Global Warming: A Column Energetics Analysis」). Based on the previous proposal with some modifications of the work items, this year we submit a two-year proposal entitled 「Changes in Tropical Convection and Precipitation under Global Warming: A Column Energetics Analysis (Phase II)」 as a follow-up study of the previous one. In this proposal, we plan to utilize the multi-model ensemble means of CMIP6 HighResMIP outputs to carry out the following tasks; (i) analyze changes of tropical convection (including intensity and structure) and precipitation under global warming, (ii) investigate changes of precipitation efficiency across the tropics, and (iii) analyze changes of surface latent heat flux (evaporation) under global warming. We also explore the physical mechanisms attributing to the above changes using the moisture and energy budget equations under convective quasi-equilibrium approximations.
