本研究使用2003年至2020年內政部警政署交通事故資料與各縣市每月地理人口特徵資料，以固定效果模型探討台灣汽機車事故的肇事率是否隨景氣波動而有不同的變化，以及台灣道路交通事故死亡率是否隨著經濟發展的進步有下降之趨勢。在進行實證分析前，使用H-P濾波法解決經濟景氣變數不規則變動及長期時間趨勢問題。 實證結果發現隨時間的演進以及經濟發展的進步，台灣整體的交通肇事死亡率有大幅下降的趨勢；但在經濟景氣好轉時，機車肇事率有顯著增加趨勢，表示經濟行為活絡會增加機車總數與交通工具的使用量，然而機車的安全性不足會造成較高的肇事率及死傷人數，因此台灣機車道路安全問題是極需要去改善的。 ;This study uses traffic accident data distributed by the National Police Agency, Ministry of the Interior, and monthly geographic and demographic data of each county from 2003-2020. We employ a fixed-effect model to analyze whether or not the ratio of the motorcycle to car accidents varies with the economic cycle, and whether Taiwan′s traffic accident mortality rate has a downward trend followed the progress of economic development? Before doing the empirical analysis, we use the Hodrick-Prescott filter to eliminate the economic variable′s irregular variation and time trend. Our empirical results show that with the evolution of time and the progress of economic development, the overall mortality rate of traffic accidents has a downward trend; however, when the economy improves, there is a significant increase in the accident rate of motorcycles. It suggests that economic activity will increase motorcycles and transportation usage; however, the increased motorcycle usages will cause a higher rate of accidents and casualties. Therefore, the road safety problem of motorcycles needs to be improved.
