有別於過往對於拍賣畫作價值的研究，大多都是衡量各種因素對拍賣畫作成交價的影響，本研究站在投資人衡量投資績效的立場，透過爬蟲技術搜集 askArt 網站的畫作拍賣交易資料，建立重複拍賣畫作樣本，並結合特徵定價模型能夠捕捉各個不同因子對成交價的影響以及重複拍賣迴歸模型能夠分析拍賣品價值變動的特性，建構以投資報酬率作為應變數，並將藝術家、畫作風格、畫作持有年數、買入成交價以及畫作交易的拍賣行等各因子設為自變數，探討影響拍賣畫作投資報酬率的因素，找出投資拍賣畫作投資人所關心的投資議題。結果顯示，藝術家對於畫作投資報酬率的解釋能力並不高，而抽象風格的畫作投資報酬率優於寫實風格的畫作。除了畫作本身以外，投資人尚需關心投資期間以及交易的議題。本研究發現，持有畫作的年數會顯著為獲利的畫作投資帶來負面的影響。而交易畫作的拍賣行也會顯著影響畫作投資報酬率，於大型拍賣行交易的畫作投資報酬率遜於在小型拍賣行交易的畫作，然而在小型拍賣行交易的畫作投資報酬率變異程度則高於在大型拍賣行交易的畫作，並且交易拍賣行與畫作買入成交價彼此間具有交互影響的效果。投資人在進入畫作拍賣市場以前，應充分考量本研究所列舉對於報酬率的影響因素。;Most of previous studies on the value of paintings in auction measure the impact of various factors on the auction price of paintings. However, this research measures the influence of several factors on rate of return of investment (ROI) of the paintings in auction from perspective of investors. We collect auction records of paintings from askArt through crawler technology and build the sample of repeat-sales paintings. Moreover, our model combined with hedonic pricing model, which captures the effects of various factors on sale prices of paintings in auction, and repeat-sales regression model, which analyze the changes in the value of the paintings. Aiming to find what are important for investing in paintings in auction, we use the ROI as dependent variable to capture the impact of artists, painting styles, holding years of paintings, sale prices and auction houses where paintings were traded on ROI. The results show that artist is not the key factor for paintings investment but painting style has a little effect. Abstract paintings perform better then realistic paintings. Besides, investors should consider holding year of their painting investment and where they trade the paintings. We find that the number of holding years has significant negative effect on the ROI of paintings. Trading auction houses also significantly affect the return of painting investment. The ROI of paintings traded at large auction houses is lower than that of paintings traded at small auction houses. However, the ROI of paintings traded at small auction houses is more volatile than paintings traded at large auction houses, and there is cross effect between trading auction houses and sale prices of the painting. Therefore, before entering the painting auction market, investors should fully consider the factors that affect the rate of return listed in this study.
