即時定量降雨預報資料運用於洪水預警系統;Application of Real-Time Quantitative Rainfall Forecast in Flood Warning System

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Title:	即時定量降雨預報資料運用於洪水預警系統;Application of Real-Time Quantitative Rainfall Forecast in Flood Warning System
Authors:	辛侑餘;XIN, YOU-YU
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	水文模式;WASH123D;洪水預報;雷達雨量;即時校正;Hydrological model;WASH123D;Flood forecasting;Radar rainfall;Real time correction
Date:	2021-10-26
Issue Date:	2021-12-07 15:16:38 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究為驗證並改善洪水水位預警模式之預報結果，分別將 2019 年的 4 場降雨事件之 QPF 雷達降雨預報資料以 3 種不同方式計算 QPF 之降雨量，並輸入至模式中，以評估其優劣。結果顯示，在單峰形降雨事件中以預測平均計算 QPF 降雨量輸入模式模擬水位可以有效提升只使用單一時刻之 QPF 降雨量模擬之準確性，並且降低洪峰誤差，其他降雨型態下對水位預測的精準度提升不明顯，但可以減少單一時刻極值造成的影響。此外評估即時校正(Realtime Correct,RT)對模式質量守恆之影響性，模式經 RT 即時校正後河道總水量改變幅度約為+0.02%~0.26%，總流量的改變量約為 16%~42%，由於率定曲線本身亦存在許多不確定性，此改變量應屬可接受的範圍。故應用 RT 對模式預測水位進行即時校正具有一定的可信度，且對模式的平衡不會造成過大的衝擊。;In order to verify and improve the forecast results of the flood warning system,the QPF radar rainfall forecast data of four rainfall event in 2019 were used to estimate the rainfall in three different ways and was input to the model to evaluate their pros and cons.The results show that in a singlepeak rainfall event, using average of forecast to estimate the QPF rainfall in model can effectively improve the accuracy of the forecasting that only uses single prediction value in model, and reduces the flood peak error.The increase in accuracy of water level prediction of other rainfall types is not significant, but it can reduce the impact of extreme values at a single prediction value. In addition, the impact of Realtime Correct (RT) on the conservation of model quality is evaluated. After the model is instantly corrected by RT, the amount of change in the total water volume of the river channel is about +0.02%~0.26%, and the difference of total flow is about 16%~42%. Therefore, the application of RT to real-time correction of the model′s predicted water level has a certain degree of credibility.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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