在未來全球暖化暨潛在強烈颱風生成機率提高之情境下，世界各國更加重視風暴潮科學之研究，中央氣象局已主動建立一套功能完整、計算快速且精準之風暴潮溢淹預報速算系統，並為因應未來潛在強烈颱風強度變動、路徑和相關物理因子之不確定因素，成功發展暴潮系集預報作業系統及相關機率預報產品。針對現有已開發之暴潮預報系統，本計畫預計透過更新系統設備硬體及模式理論方法，包含調教參數化風場模式、發展二代系集預報模式、執行潮位站所在位置對暴潮預報準確度影響等之分析與研究，以求更加提升現有預報系統之精準度與效率，為沿海區域之民眾提供詳細且精準之暴潮預報資訊，以期達到減災和防災之目的，降低生命財產損失。 ;In the context of future global warming and the increasing probability of potential strong typhoons, countries worldwide are paying more attention to the study of storm surge science. The Central Weather Bureau has taken the initiative to establish a complete, fast, and accurate storm surge forecast system. The storm surge ensemble forecast system and related probability products were also successfully developed to cope with the uncertainties of typhoon's intensity, tracks, and associated physical factors. Aiming at the current storm surge forecast system developed, this project is expected to update the system equipment hardware and model methodologies in order to further improve the accuracy and efficiency of the existing forecasting system, including tuning parameterized wind field models, developing second-generation ensemble forecasting models, and the analysis of the influence of tide station location on the accuracy of storm tide forecasting. The research will provide detailed and accurate storm tide forecast information for people in coastal areas, in order to achieve the purpose of disaster reduction and prevention, and reduce the loss of life and property.
