搜尋週期為四年時台灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:不同事件深度設定下的強震預測效果;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in four year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different choices of depths of events

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Title:	搜尋週期為四年時台灣極淺層地殼的最強地震圓弧雙交叉分析:不同事件深度設定下的強震預測效果;Analysis of the strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes in the very shallow crust of Taiwan searched in four year period : the efficiencies of strong earthquake prediction corresponding to different choices of depths of events
Authors:	曾采元;Zeng, Cai-Yuan
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;極淺層地震;台灣島內地震預測
Date:	2022-09-08
Issue Date:	2022-10-04 10:49:26 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	台灣位於歐亞板塊和菲律賓海板塊之間的環太平洋地震帶上，地震頻繁。本研究是分析李顯智老師提出的最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論預測強震的效能。由以往的研究成果來看，此理論在深度0~70公里的地震事件做分析的時候會有不錯的成果，但對於極淺層的地震沒有分析太多，所以本論文針對極淺層地震利用此理論加以研究。另外也希望對於台灣島內的地震做更詳細的分析，因為以往此理論的強震預測結果大多是集中在海外，所以也想針對這方面做出更多的探討。本研究搜尋的最強地震圓弧雙交叉以台灣島內為主，搜尋週期為由基準點往前4年(dy=4)，弧向誤差參數設定為TOLde=0.09~0.15、徑向誤差參數設定為TOLRe=0.012~0.016，主要研究極淺層的地震，將深度區分為10公里內、20公里內與30公里內，並分析最強地震圓弧雙交叉應用於各深度之強震預測效果。根據結果顯示，當研究深度設定為20公里內的效果是最好的，不論是雙凸交叉與凹凸交叉的強震預測效果都是三種深度設定中最好的，而在第五章中還有考慮圓弧半徑比效應用來提升各參數組合下的強震預測命中率，在剔除圓弧半徑比過大的資料後對於多數參數組合的命中率也有提升，雙凸交叉在TOLde=0.1、0.14~0.15所對應的所有參數在70天內幾乎都提升至50%以上的水準，甚至有些參數達到100%，凹凸交叉在TOLde=0.11~0.12、TOLRe=0.014~0.016與TOLde=0.14、TOLRe=0.012~0.013還維持住不錯的命中率，代表此概念是有其力學上的意義。 ;Taiwan is located in the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt between the Eurasian plate and the Philippine Sea plate. In this thesis we analyze the efficiency of the earthquake prediction by using the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDCICAE) proposed by Hin-Chi Lei in 2019. According to the previous research results, good efficiency of prediction can be obtained when the theory was applied to the earthquake events with the depth smaller than 70Km occurred in the Pacific ocean region outside the east coast of Taiwan. However, there is not much analysis for the very shallow earthquakes inside the Taiwan island, which is the focus of this research. The Matlab program ASICAE written by Hin-Chi Lei is applied to search for the SDICAEs and the subsequential strong earthquakes. The parameter TOLde ranges from 0.09 to 0.15 and the parameter TOLRe ranges from 0.012 to 0.016. The very shallow earthquake events in Taiwan are divided into three groups with the depths 10 km, 20 km and 30 km. The SDICAEs of each depth are searched and treated as the precursors of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.7 occurred after the formations of the SDICAEs. According to the results, the efficiency of the prediction of strong earthquake is the best when the search depth of the strongest double convex and/or concave convex intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes ranges from 0 to 20 km. In Chapter 5, the effect of the radius ratio is also taken into account to improve the strong earthquake prediction efficiency for each parameter setting. After eliminating the SDICAEs with large radius ratios, the hit rates of the predictions of strong earthquakes for most parameter settings become higher, All the parameters corresponding to the double-convex intersection at TOLde=0.1, 0.14~0.15 almost increased to a level of more than 50% within 70 days, and even some parameters reached 100%, and the concave-convex intersection was at TOLde=0.11~0.12, TOLRe=0.014~ 0.016 and TOLde=0.14, TOLRe=0.012~0.013 still maintain a good hit rate, which implies that the radius ratio of SDICAE is mechanically meaningful.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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