| 摘要: | 房地合一稅2.0對不動產價格之影響─以桃園區和桃園三大重劃區為例
摘 要
「房地合一稅」、「實價課稅」為政府為了落實賦稅公平、居住正義以及抑制短期炒作不動產、防止租稅規避的政策。歷經房地合一稅1.0 (實施日為2016年1月1日)與修法改革後之房地合一稅2.0 (實施日為2021年7月1日)，本論文分別選取桃園三大重劃區房地合一稅1.0前後各五年(期間為2011年1月至2020年12月)與整體桃園區房地合一稅2.0前後29個月(期間為2019年9月至2022年1月)之TEJ實價登錄資料庫進行研究。第一部份針對桃園三大重劃區(中路區、藝文區、經國區)以及桃園全區四個建物型態做敘述統計量，第二部分為房地合一稅2.0對整體桃園區各建物型態的不動產價格漲跌關係性之探討，過去研究指出房地合一稅制對不動產價格僅能達到「以稅制量」而無法全面達成「以稅制價」的效果，因此，本研究即針對房地合一稅2.0正式上路實施後對於桃園區房市是否能達到抑制不動產價格進行分析探討。
本研究選用一個被解釋變數為不動產價格，一個主要解釋變數為房地合一稅2.0實施日做為虛擬變數，並考慮十個控制變數進行複迴歸分析。實證結果顯示，在房地合一稅2.0實施後，在建物型態為公寓(5樓含以下無電梯)時，不動產價格明顯下跌，迴歸結果為負相關，且統計結果顯著，與本研究的假說相符；而在建物型態為住宅大樓(11層含以上有電梯)時，迴歸結果為負相關，但統計結果不顯著、在建物型態為透天厝、華廈(10層含以下有電梯)時，不動產價格的迴歸係數皆為正數，統計結果皆不顯著，不動產價格並沒有下降，與本研究的假說皆不相符。
總體來說，本研究發現不動產價格不會因為房地合一稅2.0的實施而有非常劇烈的影響，觀察房地合一稅2.0新制上路後，對於整體桃園區多數建物型態之不動產價格並沒有明顯下降的趨勢。
關鍵字：房地合一稅、實價登錄、不動產價格
;The Impacts of House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 on the Real Estate Market-A Case Study of Taoyuan City
Abstract
“House and Land Transactions Income Tax” and “Taxation on Property Transactions Based on Actual Selling Prices” are two government policies to achieve tax fairness, realize housing justice, curb short-term real estate speculation, and prevent tax evasion. Taiwan has undergone the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 1.0 (took effect on January 1, 2016) and the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 (took effect on July 1, 2021) after the reform of amendments to certain provisions. This study examined the data retrieved from five years before and after the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 1.0 (from January 2011 to December 2020) for three redevelopment zones in Taoyuan and the actual prices listed in the Taiwan Economic Journal Databank of Actual Price Registration of Real Estate Transactions over 29 months before and after the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 (from September 2019 to January 2022) for the entire Taoyuan District. The first part of the study provides descriptive statistics of four building types in the three major redevelopment zones of Taoyuan (i.e., Zhonglu, Yiwen, and Jingguo Zones) and the entire Taoyuan District. The second part discusses the relationship between the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 and real estate price fluctuations in different building types across the entire Taoyuan District. Previous studies suggest that the House and Land Transactions Income Tax system could only achieve the effect of “regulating quantities by taxation” but not that of comprehensively “regulating prices by taxation” in terms of real estate prices. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and explore whether the official adoption and enforcement of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 could effectively contain real estate prices in the housing market of Taoyuan District.
This study selected an explained variable, real estate price, and a primary explanatory variable, the enforcement date of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0, as dummy variables. Further, 10 control variables were considered for multiple regression analysis. The results show that for apartment buildings (with five or fewer floors and no elevator), real estate prices dropped significantly after the enforcement of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0, thereby revealing a significant negative correlation. The hypothesis is consistent when the type of building is a residential building (with elevators above the 11th floor), regression results are negative, and statistical results are insignificant. However, when the building types are standalone multistory houses and condominiums (with elevators below the 10th floor), regression coefficients of real estate prices are all positive numbers, statistical results are insignificant, and real estate prices have not reduced, the study hypothesis is inconsistent.
Overall, this study has deduced that the enforcement of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 did not have a drastic impact on real estate prices. The housing prices of a majority of building types in Taoyuan District as a whole did not show a significant declining trend after the introduction of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0.
Keywords: House and Land Transactions Income Tax, Actual Price Registration, Real Estate Market |
