中美貿易戰自2018年爆發以來，衝擊全球經濟，但亦有國家因轉單效應而受惠。本文欲以「差異中的差異法」(Difference-in-Differences，DID)方法，驗證在中美貿易戰發生後，台灣半導體出口是否有受惠於轉單效應，對美國出口增加。半導體為台灣出口佔比最高之產品，實屬台灣出口的經濟命脈；而美國為台灣第二大貿易夥伴國，又因貿易戰加徵關稅而減少對中國進口商品，故推測有轉單效應存在。惟經加入產品別、月份、出口地等變數於模型中，並採用不同範圍的樣本後，各模型之實證結果均顯示，貿易戰並未顯著提升台灣半導體對美國的出口額。不過，實證結果仍顯示出台灣半導體出口實績顯著優於其他產業，台灣出口至美國也比其他國家更多，且貿易戰後台灣整體出口表現顯著較佳，特別是半導體對中國出口有明顯增加，此結果符合原先預期。;The US-China trade war started in 2018, which has exerted a devastating impact on the global economy. Despite the economic downturn worldwide, some countries have benefited from the effect of order transfers. The paper intends to verify, in the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method, whether Taiwan has benefited from the effect of order transfers after the outbreak of US-China trade war and increased its semiconductor exports to the United States. Semiconductors account for the highest percentage of Taiwan’s exports, thus counting as one economic artery in Taiwan’s exports. Based on the facts that the United States is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner and that it has reduced the amount of imports from China due to an increase in tariffs resulting from the trade war, it has been speculated that the effect of order transfers existed. However, with the inclusion of product category, month, export destination, and other variables in the models, and the use of samples with various scopes, the empirical results of each model have demonstrated that the trade war did not significantly increase Taiwan’s semiconductor exports to the United States. Nonetheless, the empirical results have also shown that the semiconductor sector achieved significantly better export performance than other sectors in Taiwan, and that Taiwan exported more semiconductors to the United States than other countries. In addition, Taiwan’s exports on the whole have performed significantly better after the trade war, with a particularly remarkable increase in the semiconductor exports to China. These results conform to what has been anticipated.
