貿易條件衝擊對臺灣總體經濟的影響

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题名:	貿易條件衝擊對臺灣總體經濟的影響
作者:	李芷萱;Lee, Chih-Hsuan
贡献者:	經濟學系
关键词:	貿易條件;經濟成長率;實質匯率;實質薪資;結構式VAR;terms of trade;economic growth rate;real exchange rate;real wages;structural vector autoregression
日期:	2022-07-09
上传时间:	2022-10-04 11:57:07 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	本研究將透過結構式向量自我迴歸模型(Structural Vector Autoregression, SVAR)探討貿易條件年增率對經濟成長率、實質匯率年增率、實質薪資年增率三個經濟變數的影響與彼此之間的關聯性。研究結果發現貿易條件年增率在受到一個標準差衝擊後對經濟成長率、實質匯率年增率、實質薪資年增率皆具有顯著影響，對經濟成長率為負向影響，對實質匯率年增率與實質薪資年增率為正向的影響。再透過預測誤差變異數可得知貿易條件除了自身可解釋外，經濟成長率為重要影響因素，次之重要為實質薪資，而實質匯率與原油價格的解釋力皆很小。實質薪資除了自身可解釋外，經濟成長率與貿易條件皆為解釋的重要因素，而原油價格與實質匯率對實質薪資影響力很小。;This study will use the Structural Vector Autoregression model to explore the impact of the annual growth rate of the terms of trade on the economic growth rate, the annual growth rate of the real exchange rate, and the annual growth rate of real wages and their correlation with each other. The results of the study found that the annual growth rate of the terms of trade has a significant impact on the economic growth rate, the annual growth rate of the real exchange rate, and the annual growth rate of real wages after being impacted by one standard deviation. It has a negative impact on the economic growth rate and has a positive impact on the annual growth rate of the real exchange rate and the annual growth rate of real wages. Then, through the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, we can see that in addition to the terms of trade itself, economic growth is an important factor, followed by real wages, while real exchange rates and crude oil prices have little explanatory power. In addition to being self-explanatory, real wages can be explained by economic growth rate and terms of trade, while crude oil prices and real exchange rates have little influence on real wages.
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