| 摘要: | 我國央行有鑑於中美貿易戰、台商回台投資和銀行過度集中不動產授信，從2020年12月8日起已經實施多次房市措施。本文主要探討央行於2021年9月24日針對台北市、新北市、桃園市、台中市、台南市、高雄市、新竹縣及新竹市實施之選擇性信用管制。為了探討選擇性信用管制，即針對上述八個城市是否能有效抑制房價，本研究蒐集政策開始前後半年之全國房價資料共121,723筆。本次使用差異中的差異法(difference in differences)，以第二戶購屋貸款不得有寬限期之八個城市為實驗組，全國其餘區域為對照組進行分析。從本文實證結果可得知：第一，全體樣本在政策實施後對房價沒有顯著影響。第二，針對四種建物型包含公寓、住宅大樓、套房和華夏。住宅大樓在政策實施後對房價有正向顯著影響，華夏有負向顯著影響，其餘建物型態皆無顯著影響。第三，將八個縣市的房價個別分析。台北市和新北市在政策開始後對房價有負向顯著影響，高雄市有正向顯著影響，其餘縣市皆無顯著影響。;In view of the US-China trade war, the return of Taiwanese businessmen to invest in Taiwan, and the concentration of excessive funds in the real estate market, the central bank has implemented several housing market policies since December 8, 2019. This article mainly discusses the selective credit controls implemented by the central bank on September 24, 2021 for Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City. In order to explore whether selective credit control can effectively restrain housing prices, this research collects housing price data for the first and last half years of the policy. The difference in difference measurement method is adopted this time. Eight cities where there is no grace period for second home purchase loans as the experimental group. The others of Taiwan as the control group. First of all, the entire sample has no significant impact on housing prices after the implementation of the policy. Secondly, for the four types of buildings, including apartments, residential buildings, suites and condominium. Buildings has a positive and significant impact on housing prices, condominium has a negative and significant impact, while the rest of the building types have no significant impact. Thirdly, individual analysis of housing prices in eight counties and cities. Taipei City and New Taipei City have a negative and significant impact on housing prices after the policy begins, Kaohsiung City had a positive and significant impact, and the rest of the counties and cities have no significant impact. |
