氣候變遷對於農業灌溉用水之影響及可行政策 -以水稻地區為例;The impact of climate change on agricultural irrigation water and adaptation policies - Take paddy area for example

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题名:	氣候變遷對於農業灌溉用水之影響及可行政策 -以水稻地區為例;The impact of climate change on agricultural irrigation water and adaptation policies - Take paddy area for example
作者:	劉姿吟;Liu, Zi-Yin
贡献者:	土木工程學系
关键词:	氣候變遷;農業用水;適應政策;climate change;agricultural water use;adaptation policy
日期:	2022-10-14
上传时间:	2024-09-19 14:08:37 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	稻米為世界主要三大糧食之一，東亞、東南亞和南亞的熱帶雨林和季風氣候區更是世界上稻米主要生產區域。氣候變遷不僅影響糧食栽培情形，國際糧食亦有產量降低、價格升高之趨勢，未來氣溫及降雨之顯著變化將是農業經營一大挑戰。本研究收集四個與臺灣同以稻作為主要糧食作物國家（韓國、印尼、巴基斯坦、印度）之相關研究，先從氣溫和降水量之過去資料、未來模式預測之趨勢針對氣候變遷進行了解，結果顯示氣溫方面各國皆有一致性增溫現象，而降水量方面則有高度不確定性及因區域不同而有差異變化，接著將各國預估未來氣候變遷可能造成之農業用水影響及因應採行之適宜政策整理於此，比較後得知各國農業所受之影響大致相同，僅有小部分地區氣候型態不同而有差異;適應策略層面各國皆不斷強調未來作物之適應能力及提升資源管理之彈性，由此可見上述二者為未來發展之必要。藉此提供各個農業部門在擬定相關用水政策上之參考方向，以期未來能將氣候變遷對於糧食安全之威脅或損失降至最低。;Rice is one of the major grains in the world. The tropical rain forests and monsoon climate regions of East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia are the main rice production areas in the world. Climate change not only affects the cultivation of grain, but also tends to decrease yields and increase the prices. Significant changes in temperature and rainfall in the future will be a major challenge for agricultural operations. This study collects relevant studies from four countries (South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, and India) that plant rice as the main crop as Taiwan. First, we understand climate change from the past data of temperature and precipitation, and the trends predicted by GCM. It shows that all countries have a consistent warming phenomenon in terms of temperature, while there is high uncertainty in terms of precipitation in different. Countries predict the possible impact of agricultural water use under future climate change scenarios and announce the feasible policies. After comparison, result shows that the impact on agriculture in various countries is roughly same, and only small regions have different climate patterns. As for adaptation strategies, countries continue to emphasize the adaptability of future crops and improve the flexibility of resource management. It means that the above two direction are necessary for agriculture development in the future. This study provides a reference direction for various agricultural departments in formulating relevant water policies, with a view to minimize the threat or loss of climate change of food security.
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