機率式地震危害度分析的解析解計算方法

NCUIR > Engineering College > Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/91743

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/91743

Title:	機率式地震危害度分析的解析解計算方法
Authors:	陳柏源;Chen, Po-Yuan
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	機率式地震危害度分析;聯合分布;危害度曲線圖;參數拆解;PSHA;joint distribution;hazard curve;deaggregation
Date:	2023-06-13
Issue Date:	2024-09-19 14:12:24 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	由於台灣位在環太平洋地震帶上，以致於地震發生率會相當的頻繁，主要是因為受到菲律賓海板塊與歐亞大陸板塊的相互推擠碰撞產生地殼變動的影響，這也導致人們時常會因為地震的產生而受到生命及財產的損失。因此在台灣的地震危害度分析則顯得十分重要，其中機率式地震危害度分析(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, PSHA)是最為經常使用的，但由於目前的PSHA的解是利用全機率定理及蒙地卡羅模擬算出之數值解而不是解析解，這使人們在使用時總覺得可靠度不是那麼高，有鑑於此，本研究提出以聯合分布為基礎新的計算方法來提供給大眾使用，其是利用連續型聯合分布的概念來去進行PSHA之計算，但由於多重積分的上下限範圍定義較為複雜，因此本研究利用離散型聯合分布來去驗證其正確性。當正確性得到驗證後，本研究以台灣803個測站點來去進行PSHA計算並獲得其地震危害度曲線圖及台灣50年內2%及10%超越機率(再現週期475年及2475年)之地震危害度地圖。結果顯示，相對於其他地區，在東部台東市區及台南平原地區會有較高的最大地動加速度(Peak Ground Acceleration, PGA)危害，在再現週期475年時PGA危害度為0.5 g以上，而再現週期2475年時PGA危害度可達到1 g以上。本研究也將台灣4個都會區進行了參數拆解，來去得知各區在再現週期475年及2475年時，主要會遇到何種震源以提供給工程師參考。 ;Taiwan is located on the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, which has a frequent occurrence rate of earthquakes. It causes people to often suffer the loss of life and property because of the earthquake event. Engineers often perform a seismic hazard analysis to assess the occurrence probability associated with seismic hazards. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is most frequently used in Taiwan. In the present day, the PSHA solution is calculated by the Total-Probability theorem and Monte Carlo simulation. However, the reliability result is not very high compared to another theorem. This study proposes a new calculation method based on joint distribution. It uses the concept of continuous joint distribution to calculate PSHA. Still, because the definition of multiple integrals′ upper and lower limits is complicated, this study uses discrete joint distribution to verify its correctness. A total of 803 station data in Taiwan are selected to perform PSHA calculations after correctness is verified. The seismic hazard curve and the seismic hazard map of Taiwan with 2% and 10% exceedance probability within 50 years can be obtained from the simulation. The results show that Taitung and Tainan are subject to a greater PGA seismic hazard than other areas in Taiwan. At the 10% occurrence probability level in 50 years, the PGA hazard is more than 0.5 g. The PGA hazard is more than 1 g at the 2% occurrence probability in 50 years. Furthermore, this study used deaggregation to analyze the future earthquake sources of four metropolitan areas in Taiwan during the return period of 475 years and 2475 years (10% and 2% exceedance probabilities within the next 50 years).
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	18	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...