本文是分析自國安基金成立以來多次護盤事件中以第7次護盤政策，在研究期間探討護盤政策對於國內外發生重大事件、引起投資人信心低落導致股市大跌，國家安定金融基金操作策略多以透過買入大型權值股以穩定台灣股票市場，其中因新冠疫情肆虐影響全球供應鏈導致全世界股市大跌許多國家紛紛執行鎖國政策導致航空業者受到巨大的衝擊，全球多個航空業紛紛面臨倒閉的危機，我國也限制外國旅客進出衝擊航空產業，在嚴峻的環境下若國安基金護盤政策對於航空股有正面影響，相信其他產業及台灣股票市場的跌勢能獲得緩解，投資人恐慌心理能夠受到有效的控制。因此本次研究檢測航空業雙雄-華航及長榮航股價報酬率及股價，應用Ohlson評價模型對財務面資訊，如:每股盈餘、負債比率，流動比率，股東權益報酬率…等，及非財務面變數，如十大股東持股率、台股加權指數、美元匯率…等。在國安基金第七次護盤事件中，檢測航空業雙雄股價報酬率及股價在護盤政策下之影響。研究發現在護盤期間對個股報酬率並無直接的影響，而台股加權指數對個股報酬率在護盤期間有顯著的正向影響。而利用Ohlson評價模型進行實證，結果財務資訊對華航股價在非護盤期間及護盤期間皆有正面影響；對於長榮航空的財務變數中負債比率在護盤期間與其他時間有顯著正向影響。 ;This article analyzes the 7th round of market stabilization policies implemented by the National Stabilization Fund (NSF) during multiple market turbulence events since its establishment. During the research period, the study examines the impact of the stabilization policies on the domestic and global stock markets, particularly during significant events that cause a decline in investor confidence. The NSF′s operational strategy focuses on stabilizing the Taiwan stock market by buying weighted stocks. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global supply chain, leading to a global stock market crash. Many countries have implemented lockdown policies, causing significant impacts on the aviation industry. Airlines around the world face the risk of bankruptcy, and Taiwan also restricts foreign tourists, negatively affecting the tourism industry. This is a moment for comprehensive corporate health checks during negative impacts.
This study uses the Ohlson valuation model to evaluate financial information such as earnings per share, debt ratio, current ratio, and return on equity…etc., as well as non-financial variables such as the top ten shareholders′ ownership ratio, the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, and the USD exchange rate…etc. The study examines the impact of the stabilization policies on the stock prices of Taiwan′s two major airlines during the NSF′s 7th round of market stabilization policies. The study found that individual stock returns were not directly affected during the stabilization period, but the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index had a significant positive impact on individual stock returns and stock price. The empirical analysis using the Ohlson valuation model shows that financial information has a positive impact on China Airlines′ stock prices both before and during the stabilization period. For EVA Air, the debt ratio had a significant positive impact during the stabilization period and other periods.
