本研究探討股價變動跟基本面、技術面、籌碼面與消息面的關聯性。台灣上市上櫃公司超過一仟七佰家，基本面分析可用來做為投資標的選擇的參考，包括產業別和個股的選定，再運用技術指標當做買賣交易訊號，同時觀察籌碼面與消息面對股價的影響，試著發現投資勝敗是否有一定的脈絡可循。本研究主要是針對化肥類股的東鹼和惠光做探討，再利用二組不同的投資策略當做研究組和對照組:研究組主要是利用移動平均線和KD指標來做買賣，同時觀察成交量、三大法人進出和融資融劵餘額;對照組策略相對簡單，只看隨機指標即做買賣，同時紀錄RSI的變化。分析結果發現，研究組的平均累計報酬率優於對照組，而二組投資策略結果皆優於化工類股指數和台灣加權指數。;The study explores the relationship between stock price change and its fundamental, technical, chips, and information aspects. Fundamental analysis is used to select the investment objects from industry, technical indicators, chip status as well as market information are used to form investment strategy. The sample firms, Sesoda and Huikwang, are chemical fertilizer manufactures listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The moving average, KD indicators, the trading volume, the transaction status of the three major legal entities and the margin balance are used as trading signals in research group, in contrast, the KD indicator and the changes in RSI are applied in control group. The results show that the average annualized rate of return of the research group is better than that of the control group, and the that the performance of both investment strategies is better than that of Chemical Index and the TAIEX.
