| 摘要: | 在2020年，全球受到新冠肺炎疫情的肆虐，這是一場影響深遠的黑天鵝事件，對眾多產業造成了嚴重的打擊。隨著疫情的擴散，它逐漸波及東亞周邊、歐美乃至全球各地。在這樣嚴峻的環境下，如何進行投資成為一個值得深思的問題。股票市場的投資分析主要包括「基本面」、「技術面」和「籌碼面」。本研究的主要焦點是籌碼面分析，利用著名的隔日沖證券商分點買賣日報表，探討預測台股交易訊號的可行性。我們希望透過對這些資料的分析，能夠洞察台灣股市個股未來的走勢，並以此作為投資的參考依據。
本研究樣本時間為2020年3月2日至2020年7月1日共83個交易日，共挑選了8家著名隔日沖證券商分點作為實驗組與15家非著名隔日沖證券商分點作為對照組，另擷取16家上市櫃生技公司作為分析依據，探討著名隔日沖證券商分點與非著名隔日沖證券商分點淨買賣超對股價走勢後續影響的關聯性及兩者間是否存在從眾效應之關係。從研究結果發現，著名隔日沖證券商分點淨買賣超對股價走續後續影響明顯高於非著名隔日沖證券商分點淨買賣超對股價走續後續影響並且兩者間確實存在從眾效應。根據結果指出，著名隔日沖證券商分點的買進及賣出金額越高，越會吸引投資人關注，並連帶影響短期內個股股價走勢。
;In 2020, the world was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was a profound and far-reaching black swan event that severely impacted numerous industries. As the pandemic spread, it gradually affected not only East Asia but also the surrounding regions, Europe, the Americas, and various parts of the world. In such a challenging environment, how to approach investments became a thought-provoking question.
Investment analysis in the stock market primarily involves fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and stock stake holding analysis. This study focuses primarily on stock stake holding analysis, specifically utilizing the well-known next-day trading data from securities firms to explore the feasibility of predicting trading signals in the Taiwan stock market. Through the analysis of this data, we aim to gain insights into the future trends of individual stocks in the Taiwanese market, providing a reference for investment decisions.
The sample period for this study was from March 2, 2020, to July 1, 2020, covering a total of 83 trading days. Eight well-known next-day trading date was selected as the experimental group, while 15 non-well-known next-day trading date was chosen as the control group. Additionally, 16 listed biotech companies were selected as the basis for analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the subsequent impact of net buying and selling by well-known and non-well-known next-day trading data on stock price trends, as well as to examine whether there is a herding effect between the two groups.
The result revealed that the well-known next-day trading data from securities firms had a more significant impact on the subsequent stock price trends compared to the non-well-known next-day trading data. Furthermore, there is evidence of a herding effect between the two groups. The results indicated that higher buying and selling amounts in the well-known next-day trading data attracted more attention from investors and subsequently influenced the short-term stock price movements of individual stocks. |
