運用不同週期搜尋台灣極淺層地殼最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Strong earthquake prediction by the SDICAE in the very shallow crust of Taiwan with different search periods

NCUIR > Engineering College > Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/94483

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/94483

Title:	運用不同週期搜尋台灣極淺層地殼最強地震圓弧雙交叉進行強震預測;Strong earthquake prediction by the SDICAE in the very shallow crust of Taiwan with different search periods
Authors:	呂銘耀;Lu, Ming-Yao
Contributors:	土木工程學系
Keywords:	最強地震圓弧雙交叉;strongest double intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes
Date:	2024-07-26
Issue Date:	2024-10-09 14:46:56 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	本研究利用不同的搜尋週期來搜尋極淺層最強地震圓弧雙交叉，並經過幾何性質的篩選，以進行台灣本島及附近規模5.7以上之短期強震機率分析。研究結果顯示，最強地震圓弧雙凸交叉整合不同搜尋週期並以幾何性質篩選之結果，本理論140天內強震預測命中率為67.9%(19/28);最強地震圓弧凹凸交叉整合不同搜尋週期結果，本理論140天內強震預測命中率為61.9%(26/42);最強地震圓弧雙交叉整合不同搜尋週期結果，本理論140天內強震預測命中率為64.3%(45/70)。 ;In this study, we utilize different shallow-depth double-intersections search periods for the strongest seismic arcs. By applying geometric filtering, we analyze short-term earthquake probabilities for Taiwan and nearby regions with magnitudes of 5.7 or higher. The research results indicate the following hit rates within 140 days: 1.For the Strongest Double-Convex intersection of CAE integrated search period, the prediction hit rate within 140 days is 67.9% (19/28). 2.For the Strongest Concave-Convex intersection of CAE integrated search period, the prediction hit rate within 140 days is 61.9% (26/42). 3.For the Strongest Double Intersection of CAE integrated search period, the prediction hit rate within 140 days is 64.3% (45/70).
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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